Monday Morning Quarterback

By BOP Staff

August 14, 2007

Believe it or not, there are 250 other professional golfers.

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But how were the outtakes?

Kim Hollis: The Rush Hour franchise became only the 12th franchise to ever have multiple $49 million opening weekends, as Rush Hour 3 earned $49.1 million this weekend. What do you take from this result?

David Mumpower: I consider this to be a good but not great result for Rush Hour 3. An argument could be made that this is the least impressive opening of the series in that the original Rush Hour inflation-adjusts to $47.8 million. Barring something unforeseen with actuals vs. estimates, Rush Hour 3 will have sold more tickets, but it's not the shocking surprise the original was. After Rush Hour 2's performance, which inflation adjusts to $81.0 million, $49.1 million seems like a step back albeit an expected one. I think the sequel missed its window a bit, but a $49 million opening is still perfectly respectable.

Joel Corcoran: It's kind of an "oatmeal opening" - good, filling, but really not all that exciting. And it's certainly not a strong enough performance to warrant a fourth movie. However, it does further demonstrate that jokes about the French are still money-makers.

Tim Briody: Considering the last Rush Hour film (and last time Chris Tucker worked) was back in 2001, it's pretty impressive. Like David said, a couple years earlier and it's probably even with Rush Hour 2's opening, but since Tucker has had zero movies in the last six years and Jackie Chan hasn't had a hit since then, getting $50 million is quite the solid opening.

Max Braden: I find it very impressive considering that I didn't think the trailer was worth more than a $30 million opening. Bruce Willis should kick both of their butts for this. I take it to mean that America audiences will see anything that appears remotely related to comedy and action in the late summer. (I actually saw Rush Hour 3 and I don't think it was terrible.) I wonder if Owen Wilson was on the phone with Jackie Chan shortly after the numbers came out.

Reagen Sulewski: I don't know if nostalgia would be the right word to explain this opening, but they were really banking on good feelings about the previous two films in this series to bring people in for this one. "Remember how you liked those films? Well here's a big heaping pile more of it!"

Dan Krovich: I think it's the sort of opening where everyone is basically satisfied that they got one more movie out of the franchise, but they're probably not looking to do another one unless somehow it shows huge growth overseas. This way they get to call it a trilogy and have a 3-DVD box set out in time for Christmas.




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Three! Three! Three! Three! Let's sing a song of three!

Kim Hollis: Rush Hour 3 is the sixth three-quel of the summer after Spider-Man 3, Shrek the Third, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End, Ocean's Thirteen and The Bourne Ultimatum. With all six now in the books, how do you rank their performances?

David Mumpower: I guess it would be a bit obvious to rank them simply in terms of box office. Having said that, I don't think anyone will question the fact that Spider-Man 3 and Shrek the Third are first and second on such a list. Both improved upon already impressive performances from their direct predecessors. I believe the debate lies in ranking titles 3-6. I am of the opinion that The Bourne Ultimatum, the most successful of its franchise, is the third most impressive followed by the sheer volume of At World's End, even if it is substantially lower than Dead Man's Chest. Between the final two, Rush Hour 3's opening wasn't an unpleasant disappointment like Ocean's Thirteen was.

Joel Corcoran: I'm going to rank the six series from a different point-of-view, that of whether the relevant box office performance exceeded or fell short of expectations (rather than simple raw box office revenue). From that standpoint, I think the Bourne Ultimatum is the clear winner. The movie vastly outperformed each of its predecessors, even The Bourne Supremacy, which opened to $52.5 million three years ago. Even adjusting for inflation, this third movie made almost as much in its opening as the previous two movies combined. That feat alone puts it orders of magnitude above the rest of the pack. I disagree that Ocean's Thirteen was "an unpleasant disappointment." The movie earned a touch more than $36.1 million on its opening weekend, compared to $39.1 million for Ocean's Twelve and $38.1 for Ocean's Eleven. Given the dismal train wreck of a movie that Ocean's Twelve was, I expected this latest movie to open at around $20 to $25 million, so I'd place it in second place (though a very distant second behind The Bourne Ultimatum). I could virtually lump in the rest of the films together for the reasons David mentioned, though being pressured, I'd have to rank them as: Shrek the Third; Spider-Man 3; Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End; and Rush Hour 3. However, none of this changes the absolute, unquestionable fact that Lord of the Rings is still the best trilogy ever made in the entire history of motion pictures.

Michael Bentley: I'm with Joel; Ocean's Thirteen wasn't a disappointment because everyone was turned off by how terrible Twelve was. So, considering that, Ocean's Thirteen did pretty well. It's hard to really separate the BIG 3's for me as they all had similar sky-high openings, tepid critical and audience reaction, and lukewarm finishes. Bourne is obviously doing very well, though I wasn't really surprised by its success since Supremacy did well and it's been such a big hit on video. I yawned when I saw how Rush Hour 3 did this weekend, so I wasn't really surprised but I wasn't impressed either. Gun to my head I'd rank them: 1) Bourne, 2) Ocean's, 3 tie) Spider the Third: At World's End, 6) Rush Hour.

David Mumpower: I don't understand how people can say that Ocean's Thirteen's opening weekend was not a disappointment. The tracking data said it would do mid-40s. Even the studio had acknowledged on that Sunday that they had expected quite a bit more from it. If you want to make the argument that the $115.9 million is a triumph given that Ocean's Twelve might have ruined the franchise, be my guest. Everyone involved was disappointed with the initial three-day numbers, though. Saying otherwise is revisionist history.

Dan Krovich: Worldwide, Spiderman was the only "3" movie that improved on the performance of the second film (though Bourne will likely do that as well.)

Reagen Sulewski: Even accounting for the badness of Twelve, Thirteen didn't perform that well. They had really poisoned the well, and it didn't even show legs.

David Mumpower: I disagree with that. Ocean's Thirteen opened to $36.1 million and wound up with domestic receipts of $115.9 million. That's a final multiplier (final domestic gross/opening weekend gross) of over 3.2 in an era where a little over 2.7 is the norm on non-holiday weekends. Ocean's Thirteen showed solid legs. It just didn't open to the level that was expected of it.


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