Daily Box Office Analysis for August 7, 2007
By David Mumpower
August 8, 2007
This total means it has passed two Harry Potter titles in terms of domestic receipts. Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, the other summer release for the franchise, earned "only" $249.4 million domestically, making it the A Bug's Life of the bunch. Meanwhile, Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets earned $261.0 million domestically, making it the Ratatouille of the group. But Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix still needs another $26 million to match the most recent previous title in the series, Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire. Given that I expect it to be around $271.5 million after this weekend, I find that type of box office from this moment on quite unlikely.
Going back to comparisons for The Bourne Ultimatum (I'm all over the place today, aren't I?), The Simpsons Movie is the other remaining comparison model. The title I have already identified as front-loaded started showing chinks in its armor at this time last week. A solid $9,277,515 on its first Monday was followed by a disappointing $7,501,425 on its first Tuesday. If you scroll up and look at the actual dollars of The Bourne Ultimatum yesterday, you have already formed a conclusion about where this is going. The Simpsons Movie's Monday-Tuesday drop of 19.1% also looks somewhat familiar. The Bourne Ultimatum has thrown under it in terms of actual revenue and the percentage declines (18.2% vs. 19.1%) match up pretty well. Then again, the optimist's argument would be that 18.2% is not that much beyond Transformers' 16.9%, so any conclusions drawn today would be decided based on exactly how full your glass is at the moment.
With running box office of $85,881,790, The Bourne Ultimatum is unquestionably a huge hit for Universal. I do not want anyone to lose sight of this fact. The title has a chance to break the $100 million barrier after seven days and will do so in eight at the most. Any title that does that while having a budget of $130 million is doing pretty well in this day and age. What we are discussing right now is not the ultimate success of the latest Bourne title. Instead, we are determining degree of success with the early week data thus far indicating that it's not going to max out quite as high as looked possible once Sunday's estimates came in. Ever since then, its numbers have petered out a bit.
Overall box office for the top ten yesterday was $20,849,670. This was a drop of 12.4% from Monday but an increase of 3.0% from last Tuesday's $20,237,109. This is the third largest Tuesday of the summer behind the $22,069,618 on July 17th and the holiday/Transformers-inflated $49.27 million on July 3rd. So, third out of 14 summer Tuesdays is pretty good.
||The Bourne Ultimatum
||The Simpsons Movie
||Twentieth Century Fox
||New Line Cinema
||Walt Disney Pictures
||I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry
||Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
||Walt Disney Pictures
Box office data supplied by Exhibitor Relations