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Weekend Forecast for July 20-22, 2007

By Reagen Sulewski

July 20, 2007

As a Mets fan, he should really be more impervious to pain.

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Also in the deep cast are Christopher Walken and John Travolta as Tracy's parents (with Travolta taking on the cross-dressing role originally played by Waters standby Divine), James Marsden, Amanda Bynes and Queen Latifah.

Reviews of the film are glowing, and are the most consistent since Ratatouille (not a huge period of time, but that's a tough standard to beat). Positioning itself as a new Grease, Hairspray should do moderately well this weekend, with about $14 million.

Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix won last weekend's box office and should win again this week, but it's run into a rather unique test – can it survive its own fanbase? With the release of the seventh and final book in the Harry Potter series this weekend, the fifth movie may in fact suffer, with avid fans locking themselves up in seclusion to find out the ending of the whole shebang. Thus the hype generated for the fifth movie by the timing of its release could be a double edged sword.

Then again, that fanaticism of Potter-philes could just mean that all that group went and saw the movie already in anticipation of this release, and it's a net result of zero. The next few days will tell. In any event, reviews and word-of-mouth for Order of the Phoenix have been solid, and the 3-D IMAX aspect of the film has proven to be a significant selling point. After earning $140 million in five days, with a little over half of that on the weekend, I expect a second weekend figure of $44 million, which will bring its two week total to around $220 million.




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Transformers made a solid showing in its second weekend, adding $37 million to its total and topping $220 million itself. The candy-colored explosion fest is firmly established as one of the summer's biggest hits, and is strongly aiming at $300 million for a final domestic box office total. Look for another $18 million this weekend and for it to pass $250 million by Sunday.

Ratatouille will see its fourth straight top five showing this weekend, after withstanding the Potter juggernaut quite well last weekend. In comparison with the last Pixar film to be released at the same time as a Potter film, Monsters, Inc., Ratatouille not only didn't have its legs knocked out, it actually fared a little better, dropping just 37% to $18 million. With just under $12 million this weekend, it will pass A Bug's Life's total of $162.8 million, ensuring that it isn't the lowest grossing Pixar film.

Last weekend was a good one for several other films, including Live Free or Die Hard, License to Wed, 1408, Knocked Up and Sicko, all of which retained more than 60% of their previous weekend's business. License to Wed is the big surprise of that group, although it is to some degree following the R.V. model, which opened to $16 million and finished with a respectable $71 million. I guess you always have to watch out for that one lone date movie. If it can continue this pace, it should end up with a little over $50 million.


Forecast: Weekend of July 20-22, 2007
Rank
Film
Number of
Sites
Changes in Sites
from Last
Estimated
Gross ($)
1 Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix 4,285 0 43.7
2 I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry 3,495 New 32.4
3 Transformers 3,762 -288 18.2
4 Hairspray 3,121 New 13.8
5 Ratatouille 3,402 -223 11.7
6 Live Free or Die Hard 2,727 -474 6.6
7 License to Wed 2,525 -190 4.3
8 1408 1,471 -755 2.9
9 Knocked Up 1,284 -426 2.3
10 Sicko 1,117 +361 2.2

Continued:       1       2

     


 
 

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