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Daily Box Office Analysis for July 16, 2007

By David Mumpower

Look out for narguls!

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While we are in the neighborhood, we might as well discuss Transformers a bit more. We have already established its measurables for last weekend. Let's compare those to this frame. Transformers earned $37,027,901 over the weekend then followed it up with $4,940,497 on Monday. This represents 13.3% of the prior weekend total, something of a fall from the previous 14.1% holdover on July 9th. In terms of Sunday-to-Monday holdover, Transformers fell 57.8%, a bit steeper but generally right in line with last week's 55.2%. As Dan Krovich astutely noted in the latest edition of Monday Morning Quarterback, the normalized behavior being demonstrated by Transformers is not that surprising. Given the unusual release pattern starting with a Monday evening debut, the Michael Bay production is behaving like a film much later in its release cycle, which makes sense given the fact that it was not a true weekend release. While we are technically talking about the second Monday in theaters, the reality is that this is the third time it has earned at least $4.9 million on a Monday thus far. Theoretically, it's the 14th (or arguably the 15th) day of release, but it has been exhibited in a fashion that belies normal box office models. It has effectively skipped a weekly iteration, which is a good sign for its legs. The only other way it could have gone would have been through massive frontloading, a fate it has clearly avoided thus far.

The overall top ten earned $22,815,181 yesterday, up marginally from last Monday's $21,941,647. The 4.0% bump is nice today, but there will be a trade-off the day after tomorrow when Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix's $44,232,338 suddenly becomes a factor and blows the curve on total daily box office depreciation. In terms of summer box office to date, this is the second largest July Monday, well behind July 2nd's $28,789,748. On the plus side, it smokes every June Monday's total. June 4th had a grand total of $15,160,814; June 11th was $14,672,71; June 18th was $16,818,235; and June 25th was $16,050,527. So, yesterday was second for the summer to date as well as being second for July, which is a nice sign of overall box office strength at the moment.




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In case you are wondering about the box office for Mondays in May, here is the data. May 7th had top ten worth $12,291,398 with Spider-Man 3 comprising 83.7% of it. May 14th is the worst Monday recorded thus far this summer with a pathetic $6,786,940. May 21st, Shrek the Third's first weekday, had a top ten of $14,211,654. May 28th, a Monday some of you call Memorial Day, is unsurprisingly the largest Monday of the summer to date. Its combined top ten earned a spectacular $46,861,556. So, out of the ten non-holiday Mondays thus far this summer, yesterday finished second.


Daily Box Office for Monday, July 16, 2007
Rank Film Distributor Daily Gross Weekly Change Running Total
1 Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix Warner Bros. $10,415,480 New $150,130,637
2 Transformers DreamWorks $4,940,497 - 50.2% $228,950,080
3 Ratatouille Walt Disney Pictures $2,524,660 - 38.0% $145,521,742
4 Live Free or Die Hard Twentieth Century Fox $1,420,385 - 34.8% $104,742,965
5 License to Wed Warner Bros. $1,062,301 - 24.8% $31,442,050
6 1408 Dimension Films $698,519 - 32.3% $62,825,741
7 Evan Almighty Universal $674,250 - 43.5% $88,464,755
8 Knocked Up Universal $504,450 - 27.6% $138,721,720
9 Sicko Lionsgate, The Weinstein Company $337,412 - 25.6% $16,167,458
10 Ocean's Thirteen Warner Bros. $237,227 New $112,743,929
Box office data supplied by Exhibitor Relations



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