Daily Box Office Analysis for July 16, 2007

By David Mumpower

Look out for narguls!

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While we are in the neighborhood, we might as well discuss Transformers a bit more. We have already established its measurables for last weekend. Let's compare those to this frame. Transformers earned $37,027,901 over the weekend then followed it up with $4,940,497 on Monday. This represents 13.3% of the prior weekend total, something of a fall from the previous 14.1% holdover on July 9th. In terms of Sunday-to-Monday holdover, Transformers fell 57.8%, a bit steeper but generally right in line with last week's 55.2%. As Dan Krovich astutely noted in the latest edition of Monday Morning Quarterback, the normalized behavior being demonstrated by Transformers is not that surprising. Given the unusual release pattern starting with a Monday evening debut, the Michael Bay production is behaving like a film much later in its release cycle, which makes sense given the fact that it was not a true weekend release. While we are technically talking about the second Monday in theaters, the reality is that this is the third time it has earned at least $4.9 million on a Monday thus far. Theoretically, it's the 14th (or arguably the 15th) day of release, but it has been exhibited in a fashion that belies normal box office models. It has effectively skipped a weekly iteration, which is a good sign for its legs. The only other way it could have gone would have been through massive frontloading, a fate it has clearly avoided thus far.

The overall top ten earned $22,815,181 yesterday, up marginally from last Monday's $21,941,647. The 4.0% bump is nice today, but there will be a trade-off the day after tomorrow when Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix's $44,232,338 suddenly becomes a factor and blows the curve on total daily box office depreciation. In terms of summer box office to date, this is the second largest July Monday, well behind July 2nd's $28,789,748. On the plus side, it smokes every June Monday's total. June 4th had a grand total of $15,160,814; June 11th was $14,672,71; June 18th was $16,818,235; and June 25th was $16,050,527. So, yesterday was second for the summer to date as well as being second for July, which is a nice sign of overall box office strength at the moment.


In case you are wondering about the box office for Mondays in May, here is the data. May 7th had top ten worth $12,291,398 with Spider-Man 3 comprising 83.7% of it. May 14th is the worst Monday recorded thus far this summer with a pathetic $6,786,940. May 21st, Shrek the Third's first weekday, had a top ten of $14,211,654. May 28th, a Monday some of you call Memorial Day, is unsurprisingly the largest Monday of the summer to date. Its combined top ten earned a spectacular $46,861,556. So, out of the ten non-holiday Mondays thus far this summer, yesterday finished second.

Daily Box Office for Monday, July 16, 2007
Rank Film Distributor Daily Gross Weekly Change Running Total
1 Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix Warner Bros. $10,415,480 New $150,130,637
2 Transformers DreamWorks $4,940,497 - 50.2% $228,950,080
3 Ratatouille Walt Disney Pictures $2,524,660 - 38.0% $145,521,742
4 Live Free or Die Hard Twentieth Century Fox $1,420,385 - 34.8% $104,742,965
5 License to Wed Warner Bros. $1,062,301 - 24.8% $31,442,050
6 1408 Dimension Films $698,519 - 32.3% $62,825,741
7 Evan Almighty Universal $674,250 - 43.5% $88,464,755
8 Knocked Up Universal $504,450 - 27.6% $138,721,720
9 Sicko Lionsgate, The Weinstein Company $337,412 - 25.6% $16,167,458
10 Ocean's Thirteen Warner Bros. $237,227 New $112,743,929
Box office data supplied by Exhibitor Relations

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