Daily Box Office Analysis for June 19, 2007

By Kim Hollis

June 20, 2007

1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8. Schlemeel, schlemazel, hasenfeffer incorporated.

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Today will be a quick look at the daily numbers and what they might mean for the newest films on the block - Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer and Nancy Drew.

As we discussed yesterday, the obvious and easy comparison for Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer is the original Fantastic Four itself. Although it opened a couple of weeks later in the calendar configuration, both movies had almost identical debut weekends, with the sequel winning by just a couple of million. So in theory, Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer should similarly on weekdays to its predecessor.

In 2005, the original Fantastic Four saw its first Monday drop down to $6,176,738 after a $56.1 million opening weekend. That's 11% of the weekend total, which wasn't much to write home about. Tuesday fell another 11% to $5,482,317. Ultimately, Fantastic Four, despite appealing to a family crowd with its PG rating and shiny effects, fell 59% in weekend two, which would put it ever so slightly ahead of the drops the blockbusters are seeing this year (they've been more in the 60% range).




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Rise of the Silver Surfer, despite opening around $2 million higher than the first film, had a Monday total of $5,896,708. That's worse than the first Monday of Fantastic Four, and an omen of bad tidings. Tuesday isn't helping matters any, as the film fell an additional 13% from Monday to $5,101,445. Perhaps reviews and lousy word-of-mouth are having their effect. Given the downward trending to this point, I think it's an easy conclusion that Rise of the Silver Surfer should drop in excess of 60% this weekend - especially given the fact that Evan Almighty will siphon a lot of that child audience (even if tracking isn't so grand at this point).

As for Nancy Drew, a small 8% increase on Tuesday was good news. The bad news is that the film fell a spot as Shrek the Third's increase was even better. Let's look at a comparison or two for Nancy Drew:

Hilary Duff's The Perfect Man, like Fantastic Four, debuted in 2005. It compares nicely to Nancy Drew in that it is a pre-teen girl-targeted movie that had a less-than-stellar performance. The Perfect Man opened a million and a half lower than Nancy ($6.8 million for Nancy Drew versus $5.3 million for The Perfect Man). The good news for Nancy Drew is that it is definitely trending higher than the Duff failure. Nancy Drew's Monday was about 17% of its weekend total, while The Perfect Man was a touch lower at 15%. Nancy rose 8% on Tuesday versus The Perfect Man's 1% rise. Since the two films opened on the same weekend with regard to calendar configuration, this is great news. The Perfect Man had a tough drop in its second weekend of 50%. Assuming that trending holds steady for Nancy, she's not going to suffer so much. Of course, when we're talking about numbers this small, it's really all a matter of degrees anyway.


Daily Box Office for Tuesday, June 19, 2007
Rank Film Distributor Daily Gross Daily Change Weekly Change Running Total
1 Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer Twentieth Century Fox $5,101,445 - 13.5% N/A $69,049,837
2 Ocean's Thirteen Warner Bros. $2,388,413 - 1.0% - 36.6% $75,229,535
3 Knocked Up Universal $2,165,715 - 0.7% - 15.3% $94,362,660
4 Surf's Up Sony/Columbia $1,514,939 + 12.6% - 21.4% $37,485,527
5 Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End Walt Disney Pictures $1,442,807 - 1.3% - 30.5% $277,050,417
6 Shrek the Third DreamWorks $1,263,519 + 9.4% - 25.1% $299,663,175
7 Nancy Drew Warner Bros. $1,262,334 + 8.2% N/A $9,260,839
8 Hostel: Part II Lionsgate $477,545 - 8.3% - 38.9% $15,206,594
9 Mr. Brooks MGM $395,643 + 4.3% - 22.5% $24,298,065
10 Spider-Man 3 Sony/Columbia $308,628 + 2.1% - 34.8% $330,631,989
Box office data supplied by Exhibitor Relations



     


 
 

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