Daily Box Office Analysis for June 19, 2007
By Kim Hollis
June 20, 2007
Today will be a quick look at the daily numbers and what they might mean for the newest films on the block - Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer and Nancy Drew.
As we discussed yesterday, the obvious and easy comparison for Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer is the original Fantastic Four itself. Although it opened a couple of weeks later in the calendar configuration, both movies had almost identical debut weekends, with the sequel winning by just a couple of million. So in theory, Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer should similarly on weekdays to its predecessor.
In 2005, the original Fantastic Four saw its first Monday drop down to $6,176,738 after a $56.1 million opening weekend. That's 11% of the weekend total, which wasn't much to write home about. Tuesday fell another 11% to $5,482,317. Ultimately, Fantastic Four, despite appealing to a family crowd with its PG rating and shiny effects, fell 59% in weekend two, which would put it ever so slightly ahead of the drops the blockbusters are seeing this year (they've been more in the 60% range).
Rise of the Silver Surfer, despite opening around $2 million higher than the first film, had a Monday total of $5,896,708. That's worse than the first Monday of Fantastic Four, and an omen of bad tidings. Tuesday isn't helping matters any, as the film fell an additional 13% from Monday to $5,101,445. Perhaps reviews and lousy word-of-mouth are having their effect. Given the downward trending to this point, I think it's an easy conclusion that Rise of the Silver Surfer should drop in excess of 60% this weekend - especially given the fact that Evan Almighty will siphon a lot of that child audience (even if tracking isn't so grand at this point).
As for Nancy Drew, a small 8% increase on Tuesday was good news. The bad news is that the film fell a spot as Shrek the Third's increase was even better. Let's look at a comparison or two for Nancy Drew:
Hilary Duff's The Perfect Man, like Fantastic Four, debuted in 2005. It compares nicely to Nancy Drew in that it is a pre-teen girl-targeted movie that had a less-than-stellar performance. The Perfect Man opened a million and a half lower than Nancy ($6.8 million for Nancy Drew versus $5.3 million for The Perfect Man). The good news for Nancy Drew is that it is definitely trending higher than the Duff failure. Nancy Drew's Monday was about 17% of its weekend total, while The Perfect Man was a touch lower at 15%. Nancy rose 8% on Tuesday versus The Perfect Man's 1% rise. Since the two films opened on the same weekend with regard to calendar configuration, this is great news. The Perfect Man had a tough drop in its second weekend of 50%. Assuming that trending holds steady for Nancy, she's not going to suffer so much. Of course, when we're talking about numbers this small, it's really all a matter of degrees anyway.
1 |
Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer |
Twentieth Century Fox |
$5,101,445 |
- 13.5% |
N/A |
$69,049,837 |
2 |
Ocean's Thirteen |
Warner Bros. |
$2,388,413 |
- 1.0% |
- 36.6% |
$75,229,535 |
3 |
Knocked Up |
Universal |
$2,165,715 |
- 0.7% |
- 15.3% |
$94,362,660 |
4 |
Surf's Up |
Sony/Columbia |
$1,514,939 |
+ 12.6% |
- 21.4% |
$37,485,527 |
5 |
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End |
Walt Disney Pictures |
$1,442,807 |
- 1.3% |
- 30.5% |
$277,050,417 |
6 |
Shrek the Third |
DreamWorks |
$1,263,519 |
+ 9.4% |
- 25.1% |
$299,663,175 |
7 |
Nancy Drew |
Warner Bros. |
$1,262,334 |
+ 8.2% |
N/A |
$9,260,839 |
8 |
Hostel: Part II |
Lionsgate |
$477,545 |
- 8.3% |
- 38.9% |
$15,206,594 |
9 |
Mr. Brooks |
MGM |
$395,643 |
+ 4.3% |
- 22.5% |
$24,298,065 |
10 |
Spider-Man 3 |
Sony/Columbia |
$308,628 |
+ 2.1% |
- 34.8% |
$330,631,989 |
Box office data supplied by Exhibitor Relations
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