Today will be a quick look at the daily numbers and what they might mean for the newest films on the block - Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer and Nancy Drew.
Daily Box Office Analysis for June 19, 2007
By Kim Hollis
June 20, 2007
As we discussed yesterday, the obvious and easy comparison for Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer is the original Fantastic Four itself. Although it opened a couple of weeks later in the calendar configuration, both movies had almost identical debut weekends, with the sequel winning by just a couple of million. So in theory, Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer should similarly on weekdays to its predecessor.
In 2005, the original Fantastic Four saw its first Monday drop down to $6,176,738 after a $56.1 million opening weekend. That's 11% of the weekend total, which wasn't much to write home about. Tuesday fell another 11% to $5,482,317. Ultimately, Fantastic Four, despite appealing to a family crowd with its PG rating and shiny effects, fell 59% in weekend two, which would put it ever so slightly ahead of the drops the blockbusters are seeing this year (they've been more in the 60% range).
Rise of the Silver Surfer, despite opening around $2 million higher than the first film, had a Monday total of $5,896,708. That's worse than the first Monday of Fantastic Four, and an omen of bad tidings. Tuesday isn't helping matters any, as the film fell an additional 13% from Monday to $5,101,445. Perhaps reviews and lousy word-of-mouth are having their effect. Given the downward trending to this point, I think it's an easy conclusion that Rise of the Silver Surfer should drop in excess of 60% this weekend - especially given the fact that Evan Almighty will siphon a lot of that child audience (even if tracking isn't so grand at this point).
As for Nancy Drew, a small 8% increase on Tuesday was good news. The bad news is that the film fell a spot as Shrek the Third's increase was even better. Let's look at a comparison or two for Nancy Drew:
Hilary Duff's The Perfect Man, like Fantastic Four, debuted in 2005. It compares nicely to Nancy Drew in that it is a pre-teen girl-targeted movie that had a less-than-stellar performance. The Perfect Man opened a million and a half lower than Nancy ($6.8 million for Nancy Drew versus $5.3 million for The Perfect Man). The good news for Nancy Drew is that it is definitely trending higher than the Duff failure. Nancy Drew's Monday was about 17% of its weekend total, while The Perfect Man was a touch lower at 15%. Nancy rose 8% on Tuesday versus The Perfect Man's 1% rise. Since the two films opened on the same weekend with regard to calendar configuration, this is great news. The Perfect Man had a tough drop in its second weekend of 50%. Assuming that trending holds steady for Nancy, she's not going to suffer so much. Of course, when we're talking about numbers this small, it's really all a matter of degrees anyway.