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Daily Box Office Analysis for June 12, 2007

By David Mumpower

June 13, 2007

Screw marching. I can surf!

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Since Ocean's Eleven was five and a half years ago, it's not as good a comparison as the more recent Ocean's Twelve. Also, given that movie's *ahem* shaky word-of-mouth, it's also a good comparison to check to see whether Ocean's Thirteen is showing better holdover appeal. Ocean's Twelve made $3.02 million on its first Monday then held steady at $3.00 million on its first Tuesday. The combined Monday/Tuesday total of $6.02 million represents a ratio of only 15.4% relative to its prior weekend. Even if we inflation adjust from December of 2004 (average ticket price of $6.21) to now, the current box office would be $6.58 million, well behind Ocean's Thirteen's $7.93 million. So, the new movie is doing better in terms of both weekend holdover and actual weekday box office despite following up a movie that had stink of failure written all over it. Again, this is the good news.

The bad news this time is the deal-breaker, I'm afraid. Due to Christmas to New Year's Day holiday behavior, Ocean's Twelve earned $54 million from its 11th day of release to its 23rd day of release. For Ocean's Eleven, the number is $48 million. Ocean's Thirteen is not going to see that sort of freakish box office expansion in its later days. Instead, it's going to lose venues quickly when other new blockbusters enter the marketplace, something that was less of a factor with the prior two titles in the franchise.




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In fact, Ocean's Eleven opened with 3,075 play dates and kept all of them for four straight weeks. That sort of behavior is already extinct in current box office except in the most extreme situations. Ocean's Twelve duplicated the feat, starting in 3,290 locations and holding all of them for 28 consecutive days. Ocean's Thirteen is going to start losing a portion of its 3,565 venues in just 10 days.

As much as I would like to be optimistic here (being a huge fan of the franchise), I'm struggling to see a way for Ocean's Thirteen to break $100 million. It's looking at a drop to $18 million or so in its second weekend, meaning it should be at $68 million at the start of next week. Barring something unforeseen, it's a lock to be the least successful film in the franchise, at least domestically.

Box office for the top ten behaved eerily similarly to how it did last Tuesday. The overall top ten for Tuesday, June 5th fell 4.4% from the day before. Yesterday's box office was down 4.1%. The good news is that box office is up almost exactly a million this week with $14,068,392 as opposed to last Tuesday's $13,073,045. This is another example of what a few quality releases can do to the overall depth of the top ten. The other point of comparison is that last Tuesday saw two films, Mr. Brooks and Waitress, increase from the prior Monday. Yesterday was quite a bit better in this regard with four titles rising from Monday. The unflappable Waitress as well as three child-skewing titles (Surf's Up, Shrek the Third and Spider-Man 3) all improved slightly.


Daily Box Office for Tuesday, June 12, 2007
Rank Film Distributor Daily Gross Daily Change Weekly Change Running Total
1 Ocean's Thirteen Warner Bros. $3,769,975 - 9.3% N/A $44,058,753
2 Knocked Up Universal $2,558,425 - 4.9% - 37.9% $71,114,510
3 Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End Walt Disney Pictures $2,076,364 - 4.3% - 45.3% $257,687,300
4 Surf's Up Sony/Columbia $1,927,264 + 3.8% N/A $21,423,978
5 Shrek the Third DreamWorks $1,686,655 + 3.2% - 34.8% $284,781,832
6 Hostel: Part II Lionsgate $780,975 - 14.3% N/A $9,896,070
7 Mr. Brooks MGM $510,344 - 0.9% - 48.6% $19,619,066
8 Spider-Man 3 Sony/Columbia $473,025 + 0.6% - 36.7% $326,528,216
9 Waitress Fox Searchlight $210,365 + 10.4% - 11.2% $12,367,907
10 Gracie Picturehouse $75,000 - 6.3% - 48.3% $2,608,515
Box office data supplied by Exhibitor Relations



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