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Friday, May 4, 2007 was a day of wine and roses for the Spider-Man franchise. After having his mojo briefly taken away last year by Jack Sparrow, the web-slinger has returned to theaters to reclaim what was once his. The result is a record-shattering opening day performance along with a chance to re-take the title of biggest opening weekend of all-time.

As you will hear throughout the day, Spider-Man 3 has had the single biggest day of box office in history, accumulating a jaw-dropping $58.0 million. That tally represents an increase of 3.9% over the $55.8 million Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest earned on July 7, 2006. Aided by round-the-clock showings beginning Thursday evening at midnight (or is that technically Friday morning?), the latest Spidey outing consistently sold out theaters across America despite having a record total of 4,252 theaters as well as a reported 11,000 prints (roughly 2,000 more than Dead Man's Chest had). Overcoming a 140 minute running time, longest in the trilogy, Spider-Man 3's release pattern allowed easily accessible viewing for most parts of North America. The end result is that the Marvel franchise has just called Disney out, telling their infamous pirate that anything he can do, Spidey can do better.

The big question, of course, is whether Spider-Man 3 can carry over that momentum for the next 48 hours, thereby matching or surpassing the other feats of Dead Man's Chest. A tally of $42.0 million or more on Saturday would mean that the Sony release has become the second movie to earn $100 million in only two days. A total of $77.7 million or more over Saturday and Sunday would indicate that the Spidey franchise has re-taken the title of largest opener of all time, surpassing the $135.6 million last year from Team Sparrow. Both of these accomplishments seem possible if not likely, but do not let anyone tell you they are foregone conclusions. Let me explain why.

There have been ten single-day performances of $40 million or more in box office history. Two of those were from Spidey himself, so let's evaluate those first. Spider-Man earned $43.6 million on its first Saturday, falling 27.1% the next day to actual dollars of $31.8 million. Spider-Man 2 earned $40.4 million on its release date, a Wednesday, before falling 41.1% to $23.8 million the next day. Its Friday box office of $32.5 million was still a decline of 19.9% from Wednesday. This latter film is the pattern most likely for Spider-Man 3 to follow. Opening day rush creates this sort of behavior. With the must-watch fans taken out of the equation, the film demonstrates ordinary patterns afterward. This makes $46.5 million or so the target number for Saturday box office receipts. A performance higher than this would indicate that Spider-Man 3 is showing more demand that its immediate predecessor did. A number significantly lower than this would mean that Spider-Man 3 is more of a one-day wonder at the box office.

While some would be quick to point out that Spider-Man and Spider-Man 2 had great internal multipliers, we need to remember what such behavior demonstrates. Spider-Man's biggest day was a Saturday, indicating that the multiplier would be fantastic. Spider-Man 3 is not going to see the same behavior. A 10.7% increase or $64.2 million in actual dollars would be required for that to happen. If you believe this to be possible, I have a distinctive bridge to sell you in one of the five boroughs. Meanwhile, Spider-Man 2's internal multiplier of 2.72 is equally misleading since that title's biggest day was on a Wednesday. If we swap out that $40.4 million number for the $32.5 million number to evaluate how that changes the picture, Spider-Man 2's best day as well as its first Saturday and Sunday would combine for $96.1 million worth of box office. That would be an internal multiplier of 2.38. That's a much different picture than the 2.72 would paint, isn't it?

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