They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don't They?
Globe and SAG Nods Further Muddy the Oscar Water
By J. Don Birnam
December 14, 2017
Best Motion Picture, Drama
Dunkirk
The Post
The Shape of Water
Call Me by Your Name
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
The Disaster Artist
Get Out
The Greatest Showman
I, Tonya
Lady Bird
Best Director
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World
Steven Spielberg, The Post
Best Actor, Motion Picture, Drama
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel Esq.
Tom Hanks, The Post
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Best Actress, Motion Picture, Drama
Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Meryl Streep, The Post
Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World
Best Actor, Motion Picture, Comedy
Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
Ansel Elgort, Baby Driver
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Best Actress, Motion Picture, Comedy
Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes
Helen Mirren, The Leisure Seeker
Best Supporting Actor, Motion Picture
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Best Supporting Actress, Motion Picture
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Best Screenplay
The Shape of Water
Lady Bird
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
The Post
Molly’s Game
SAG Giveth Away…
Not so fast, said the Screen Actors’ Guild. They have a decidedly unique taste and have never shied away from going their own way. This year was no exception. Where the Globes showed a lot of love for the late comers, SAG did the exact opposite and rewarded movies that they have seen for a while. Streaming movies and Netflix did very well, in spaces that the Globes completely shut out.
For example, simply in the ensemble category, the nominations went to The Big Sick (completely shut out at the Globes), and to Mudbound, another movie that did not do well with HFPA. The three movies that have Globe overlap end up being Three Billboards, Lady Bird, and Get Out. If you believe in the “SAG Ensemble” rule, that to win Best Picture a movie has to have a nomination here (the rule has held for all but the first year of SAG’s existence), then your likely Best Picture winner is among those.
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