They Shoot Oscar Prognosticators, Don't They?
Globe and SAG Nods Further Muddy the Oscar Water
By J. Don Birnam
December 14, 2017
BoxOfficeProphets.com
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The Globes Taketh…
Heading into the week, it seemed as if The Shape of Water was doing poorly, given the relative lack of mention with the critics groups. It was instead The Post, The Florida Project, Lady Bird, and Call Me By Your Name which had received citations from the first precursors.
But just like that, the ever-quirky Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) had something else to say about it. Even though international flavor movies seem to be right up their alley, CMYBN did not do particularly will, missing out on both Director and Screenplay nominations. Instead, it was The Shape of Water that they really enjoyed, along with The Post. Both received nominations across the board, including for Director and Screenplay. The same could be said for Three Billboards which, as we shall see below, essentially becomes the only movie with good tallies from the Globes AND from SAG.
The other thing that the Globes did was really skew heavily towards late-breaking movies. They saw it fit to reward All The Money in the World not just with a Best Director nod for Ridley Scott, but also Christopher Plummer for a role he landed a few weeks ago. And the upcoming musical The Greatest Showman, also did well, including nods for its star Hugo Jackman. Daniel Day-Lewis in Phantom Thread was also cited. Clearly, the HFPA wanted to remind us that they have seen all the unreleased movies of the year.
In the acting categories, it has always been hard to take much stock in the Globes given that they have ten slots in the lead roles. Nominees like Jessica Chastain for Molly’s Game or Emma Stone for Battle of the Sexes are just completely unlikely to make any noise anywhere else down the awards season. On the other hand, the supporting categories, which tend to align with SAG and then with Oscar, can be more helpful. Hong Chau, for example, got a nod, meaning that this category is congealing around her, Metcalf, Janney and most likely Mary J. Blige, with that fifth slot up for grabs.
How much do the Globes matter anyway? It’s hard to tell. Don’t forget that last year they broke their own record with La La Land, only to see that movie fall just one award short of the most important one. But, on the other hand, speech rehearsals are a thing, and they seem to have more in common with the Academy voters than, say, SAG does in some situations. Their four acting picks were much closer to Oscar than SAG’s were.
So who will win? I’m expecting The Shape of Water to battle Three Billboards in Drama, with Lady Bird most likely taking Comedy. You will probably see Del Toro win Director, and I expect acting prizes for Chalamet, Franco, and Dafoe in the guys, and McDormand, Ronan, and a true toss-up slightly favoring Metcalf.
Check out the most relevant Globes nominations next page
Best Motion Picture, Drama
Dunkirk
The Post
The Shape of Water
Call Me by Your Name
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
The Disaster Artist
Get Out
The Greatest Showman
I, Tonya
Lady Bird
Best Director
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World
Steven Spielberg, The Post
Best Actor, Motion Picture, Drama
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel Esq.
Tom Hanks, The Post
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Best Actress, Motion Picture, Drama
Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Meryl Streep, The Post
Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World
Best Actor, Motion Picture, Comedy
Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
Ansel Elgort, Baby Driver
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Best Actress, Motion Picture, Comedy
Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes
Helen Mirren, The Leisure Seeker
Best Supporting Actor, Motion Picture
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Best Supporting Actress, Motion Picture
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Best Screenplay
The Shape of Water
Lady Bird
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
The Post
Molly’s Game
SAG Giveth Away…
Not so fast, said the Screen Actors’ Guild. They have a decidedly unique taste and have never shied away from going their own way. This year was no exception. Where the Globes showed a lot of love for the late comers, SAG did the exact opposite and rewarded movies that they have seen for a while. Streaming movies and Netflix did very well, in spaces that the Globes completely shut out.
For example, simply in the ensemble category, the nominations went to The Big Sick (completely shut out at the Globes), and to Mudbound, another movie that did not do well with HFPA. The three movies that have Globe overlap end up being Three Billboards, Lady Bird, and Get Out. If you believe in the “SAG Ensemble” rule, that to win Best Picture a movie has to have a nomination here (the rule has held for all but the first year of SAG’s existence), then your likely Best Picture winner is among those.
And, if you look at the movie with the widest cross-appeal, then you are looking at either a win by Lady Bird, the only one of the three with a major critical mention, or at Three Billboards, whose Toronto People’s Choice win signals strength with broad audiences. Indeed, back during TIFF I did call Three Billboards a “force to be reckoned with,” proving that even the proverbial broken clock may be right twice a day.
But even if you forget the “SAG Ensemble” rule for a second, their nominations threw in a couple of wrenches into the Oscar equation, at least when it comes to nominations if not ultimate winners. Take Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe got his expected nod and he is running away with it likely, but they stunned people by giving Three Billboards not one but two nominations there, for Sam Rockwell and Woody Harrelson. The three were also joined very surprisingly by Steve Carrell from Battle of the Sexes, a role for which he got a lead nod at the Globes. Richard Jenkins from The Shape of Water rounded out the group, calling into question what happened to the supporting men from CMBYN?
In supporting actress there were also a couple of doozies. Hong Chau from Downsizing made it in (surprising if nothing else because the movie has not been released), and she joined Holly Hunter from The Big Sick and Mary J. Blige from Mudbound, both the second nomination for their respective films after the Ensemble nod. But the race remains between Allison Janney and Laurie Metcalf, with the latter probably in the lead (certainly for the SAG, which gave her movie two other nominations).
Lead Actress seemed locked in for five, but they opted, incredibly and somewhat ridiculously to be frank, for Judi Dench for Victoria and Abdul over Meryl Streep in The Post. I’m sorry, but that is the definition of egg on the face. The other four nominees showed up as expected, including Margot Robbie, Frances McDormand, Sally Hawkins, and Saoirse Ronan. It is arguably anybody’s game but you have to give the lead to the ones in Best Ensemble nominees. Then again maybe not, Robbie’s I, Tonya is a crowd pleaser just as much as the others are.
And, finally, in lead actor we were also very surprised, given the inclusion of Denzel Washington over Daniel Day-Lewis or Tom Hanks, particularly given the bad reviews of Roman J. Israel. But the late break of Phantom Thread and The Post probably did not help. The other nominees were, as mostly expected, James Franco, Timothee Chalamet, Gary Oldman, and Daniel Kaluuya for Get Out. Although everyone thinks the race is between Oldman and Chalamet I’m calling an upset here for Kaluuya, upending this race. He is in the only Ensemble nominee in the race. They clearly like his movie more.
And how much stock do we put in them? Again it’s hard to tell. Last year’s winner, Hidden Figures, didn’t win a single Oscar.
Check out the full SAG ensemble nominations below!
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture:
“The Big Sick”
“Get Out”
“Lady Bird”
“Mudbound”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role:
Timothee Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”
James Franco, “The Disaster Artist”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”
Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role:
Judi Dench, “Victoria & Abdul”
Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role:
Steve Carell, “Battle of the Sexes”
Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
Woody Harrelson,”Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role:
Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”
Hong Chau, “Downsizing”
Holly Hunter, “The Big Sick”
Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”