BOP Staff Star Wars Predictions
By BOP Staff
December 17, 2015
David Mumpower: I made my bones as a box office analyst in telling people that they got too excited about the opening weekend of The Phantom Menace, and it's basically worked every time with the prequels. I haven't done that to splash cold water in the faces of GFBs. Instead, I've done because I've always understood something important about the Star Wars crowd. It's arguably the largest fanboy group on the planet, and they scare the stuffing out of normal folk. So, the media reports these swarms of fans lining up for days on end to watch the movies, and it gets stated so often that people forget that it's generally the same people each time. What we're seeing in 2015 is the logical expansion of that behavior in the social media era, something that was only in its infancy when the debacle that was The Revenge of the Sith debuted.
Having said all of that, I absolutely believe that The Force Awakens would eviscerate the opening weekend record if they'd released the film at any other point on the 2015 schedule before this week. I'm also open to the possibility that they still will. The "worst case" scenarios we're discussing here signify opening weekends $100 million beyond anything that's ever transpired in the month of December before.
In that regard, BOP's most veteran staff members are wryly amused by the entire turn of events. We used to argue that a blockbuster could open at any time on the calendar and perform just as well as if it were a July 4th release. All the film needed was enough demand. We also pointed out that the late December calendar embodied an entirely different type of box office behavior that stood as its own entity on the yearly movie schedule. Films released during this period have their opening weekend artificially deflated, but it doesn't matter because they receive 12-15 days of box office that are functionally equivalent to a Friday. It's an amazing, time-proven behavior that has boosted Titanic and Avatar into becoming the biggest films of all-time.
So, we're laughing at the unlikely combination of two box office trends people used to violently argue we were wrong about that are now commonly accepted butting heads. This IS the box office equivalent of the irresistible force versus the immovable object. I've run so many calculations on it that I'm frankly tired of seeing the numbers. I honestly didn't know which side would win until I finally settled on the user model I felt most comfortable in employing.
Oddly, I'm choosing the one that Ms. Hollis discarded above. I have every confidence that The Force Awakens will shatter the single-day box office record of $91 million. I expect somewhere around $100 million, and even 10 percent more wouldn't surprise me.
The true conversation lies in what happens the following day. The same issues that have historically caused films to struggle during their late December opening weekends still apply. Saturday and Sunday represent the final two weekend shopping days prior to Christmas, and that also means many parties with loved ones. The time crunch is brutal, and people don't have the onus of HAVING to watch the movie over the weekend. They can just as easily watch it any of the next 12 days. Even for Star Wars, that changes the calculus. I think it'd have a real chance at $250 million on 50 out of 52 weekends of 2015.
This weekend requires different calculations due to its complexity. We have to pick the correct model to apply to the most novel situation in recent box office history, and I believe that due to the sheer volume of the numbers Star Wars 7 will have to manage to break the record, it'll fall short. I expect about $54 million on Saturday and then $41 million on Sunday, which leaves it at $195 million. That's actually about $10 million more than I was thinking just yesterday, so I certainly don't rule out its chances of breaking the record. If it does, it's the equivalent of running three and a half minute mile while wearing arm and leg weights. It's that impressive.
Predictions from other BOP staff, friends and fans
Meghan H. - $210 million
Our good friend Ed D. β βIt won't beat Jurassic World's opening, probably just slightly less.β
@LordCrom - $210 million
J. Don Birnam - $195 million
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