Shop Talk: Memorial Day
By Jason Barney
May 22, 2013
The third major opener is Epic. It has the benefit of being the only kids flick. Epic is not part of a franchise, but the history of animation doing well over the coveted Memorial Day Weekend break is quietly noteworthy. A sampling of some of the most recent ones should provide a good benchmark as to Epic’s opening prospects. Shrek 2 did monster numbers all the way back in 2004, and that was its second weekend. Over the Hedge, a single shot kids movie did $35 million in 2006, and that was its second week of release. 2010’s Shrek Forever After, brought in $57 million in its second weekend. Kung Fu Panda’s $60 million opening in 2011 helped set the record that year. The key element of the success of Epic will be the scheduling for families with children. The Croods, which was released over two months ago, has been the only animated choice for weeks now. This development in the schedule cannot be overstated, and will likely push Epic near a $50 million opening.
These three major openers will be the foundation of the box office over the Memorial Day break and should provide most of the pop behind any record setting numbers. However, the returning films on the schedule will be just as significant to the rise of 2013 in the record books.
First among them will be Star Trek: Into Darkness. It is the follow up to 2009’s much anticipated reboot. It carries on one the most beloved science fiction franchises of all time and should be an intensely strong competitor during its second weekend. With a somewhat disappointing opening weekend of over $75 million, but with mostly strong reviews, Star Trek’s second weekend numbers will definitely be in play. With an extended weekend for its second week in theaters, its hold is going to be excellent. $50 million plus over the holiday frame is not out of the question.
The purpose of this exercise is counting, and doing the math….that makes four films with a potential of earning above $50 million over the Memorial Day weekend frame. Some of them will be well above that number. Can anyone say “on the doorstep of record shattering?" The other two significant returners will also play a major impact on whether this is truly a remarkable movie going event. If Iron Man 3 enjoys holds in the 50% range it should pull in around $20 million. This is entirely possible.
Gatsby, with a surprisingly strong Mother’s Day weekend, has the potential for great holds in weeks two and three. Gatsby’s weekend multiplier from May 10th -12th was very respectable, indicating this is not likely to be a front loaded film. With it being the only thing resembling a potential date movie, and the unexpectedly large opening weekend, it is entirely possible Gatsby has a Memorial Day weekend in the $20 million range as well. A $51 million opening…with a crazy strong hold for week two….and Gatsy is poised to be a very strong earner as records fall.
For those counting….it is possible the top six films at the box office could cumulatively bring in $240 million. This accomplishment alone would already make it the fourth largest Memorial Day weekend of all time. The potential of the leftovers really doesn’t matter, I believe. The possibility of films like Pain and Gain, Peebles, The Big Wedding, The Croods, G.I Joe Retaliation, Oblivion, 42, Oz The Great and Powerful, and other early calendar releases to take in a significant chunk of the remaining $30 million to break the record is pretty high. This doesn’t even take into account the smaller, artsy films and much older holdovers which are still out in theaters…films like The Company You Keep, The Place Beyond the Pines, and Mud.
What this all adds up to is the potential for one rip roaring box office weekend, probably one for the record books. What is clear is that movie goers will have a ton of options, and that studios will make a lot of money. In this age of front-loaded box office blockbusters, this particular Memorial Day Weekend could become the definition of blockbuster summer success.
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