Shop Talk: Memorial Day
By Jason Barney
May 22, 2013
BoxOfficeProphets.com
First, there is the historical competition. Memorial Day weekend has only been huge and competitive for about the last decade. Twenty years ago movie going was a different era, and performance in theaters was measured in a totally different way. Things changed in the late 1990s, and by 2000 blockbuster openings were the new trend. Mission: Impossible II and Shanghai Noon were strong that year, and holdovers like Gladiator, Dinosaur, and Road Trip each earned over $13 million. They garnered $184 million in receipts. By today’s revved up standards this is not enormous, but it will serve as an anchor for our analysis.
In 2001 Pearl Harbor opened to an enormous $75 million, and returning films Shrek and The Mummy Returns helped propel that Memorial Day frame to $181 million. In 2002 it was the earlier releases like Attack of the Clones and Spiderman that led the way, combining with three new flicks for $200 million. You get the picture. May is a huge month for the box office, and studios roll out some of the biggest pictures of the year. The holiday weekend of May is the icing on the cake; a lot of coin is made.
The rungs on the ladder of success continued to get higher throughout the last decade, with studios starting to count on the money like a man who works a few hours of overtime. In 2004 the paycheck equaled an amazing $248 million. Shrek 2 and The Day After Tomorrow both earned over $68 million, a truly remarkable accomplishment.
Theaters were packed full of excited movie goers in 2005 when $232 million was brought in. Three films, Revenge of the Sith, Madagascar, and The Longest Year Yard each took in over $58 million. The sci-fi flick, a comedy, and a kids film were all designed to appeal to different audiences. It was somewhat of a gamble, as even on holiday weekends there are only so many people to see movies. However, three different wide releases, all tailored to different viewers paid off. Keep this strategy in mind.
2007 presented a similar rollout from studios. Comic book action geeks could enjoy Spiderman 3, which earned close to $20 million. Far north of that was Shrek 3, an offering for families and children, which pulled in an impressive $67 million in weekend number two. The monster in the room was Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End, which plundered fans for nearly $140 million of box office treasure. Combined with all the other offerings, 2007 set the then box office record with $255 million.
Aren’t records made to be broken?
Enter 2011. Studios looked at the trends and pushed projects that would appeal to an array of fans, and it paid off handsomely. Leading the way was an unlikely sequel, The Hangover II, with a staggering $103 million. The goodwill of the original played a major part in the follow-up's success, but it was still seen by a ton of people. A franchise got its legs under it, and we get the third installment this year. The kids option in 2011 was Kung Fu Panda 2, which smashed above the $60 million dollar figure. The fourth of the Pirates of the Caribbean movies was in its second weekend, and brought in a solid $50 million. The counter-programming mega hit Bridesmaids was also an option and locked up nearly $21 million of profits. Another franchise, The Fast and the Furious, was doing business as well. With its car chases and sexy women, their fifth installment, Fast Five, was still in the top 10 after opening surprisingly strong in April.
That Memorial Day set the standard. 2011 brought in a hefty $276 million. It seemed unimaginable ten years ago. Surpassing such a record seemed impossible.
It may fall this year.
The films released two years ago serve as a foundation for what we may see this year, as some of the movies are so closely related. Franchise sequels will play a major role in whether the 2011 record falls. Comedy fans will be attracted to the potential of Hangover Part III. The first film was such a blunt surprise; its run during the summer of 2009 was totally unexpected. It was so beloved it earned the sequel, and now Warner Bros is going back to the bank for one final payday with this group of characters. It is extremely doubtful that Part III opens as well as Part II did. However, how far off can the numbers be? The Hangover Part I opened to $44 million. Part III will probably open somewhere between Parts I and II….so somewhere in the $60-80 million range seems like a good guess. Not record breaking on its own…but enough.
Next we have Universal’s Fast & Furious 6. This is another franchise that has built on previous success, especially with the last product. Marketed on the simple American bread and butter of revved up fast cars, big muscles, explosions, and hot women, the sixth entry provides a glimpse as to how strong this line actually is. The likely answer is that #6 won’t be the runaway success that Fast Five was when it opened to a totally unexpected $89 million back in 2009. However, this is a Memorial Day opener and there is every reason to believe the franchise will have very successful outing. Vin Diesel and The Rock together seem like the perfect summer pairing. It may not open to Fast Five’s $89 million….but $70-80 million seems like a low end figure. Anything more than that and 2011 is definitely in play.
The third major opener is Epic. It has the benefit of being the only kids flick. Epic is not part of a franchise, but the history of animation doing well over the coveted Memorial Day Weekend break is quietly noteworthy. A sampling of some of the most recent ones should provide a good benchmark as to Epic’s opening prospects. Shrek 2 did monster numbers all the way back in 2004, and that was its second weekend. Over the Hedge, a single shot kids movie did $35 million in 2006, and that was its second week of release. 2010’s Shrek Forever After, brought in $57 million in its second weekend. Kung Fu Panda’s $60 million opening in 2011 helped set the record that year. The key element of the success of Epic will be the scheduling for families with children. The Croods, which was released over two months ago, has been the only animated choice for weeks now. This development in the schedule cannot be overstated, and will likely push Epic near a $50 million opening.
These three major openers will be the foundation of the box office over the Memorial Day break and should provide most of the pop behind any record setting numbers. However, the returning films on the schedule will be just as significant to the rise of 2013 in the record books.
First among them will be Star Trek: Into Darkness. It is the follow up to 2009’s much anticipated reboot. It carries on one the most beloved science fiction franchises of all time and should be an intensely strong competitor during its second weekend. With a somewhat disappointing opening weekend of over $75 million, but with mostly strong reviews, Star Trek’s second weekend numbers will definitely be in play. With an extended weekend for its second week in theaters, its hold is going to be excellent. $50 million plus over the holiday frame is not out of the question.
The purpose of this exercise is counting, and doing the math….that makes four films with a potential of earning above $50 million over the Memorial Day weekend frame. Some of them will be well above that number. Can anyone say “on the doorstep of record shattering?" The other two significant returners will also play a major impact on whether this is truly a remarkable movie going event. If Iron Man 3 enjoys holds in the 50% range it should pull in around $20 million. This is entirely possible.
Gatsby, with a surprisingly strong Mother’s Day weekend, has the potential for great holds in weeks two and three. Gatsby’s weekend multiplier from May 10th -12th was very respectable, indicating this is not likely to be a front loaded film. With it being the only thing resembling a potential date movie, and the unexpectedly large opening weekend, it is entirely possible Gatsby has a Memorial Day weekend in the $20 million range as well. A $51 million opening…with a crazy strong hold for week two….and Gatsy is poised to be a very strong earner as records fall.
For those counting….it is possible the top six films at the box office could cumulatively bring in $240 million. This accomplishment alone would already make it the fourth largest Memorial Day weekend of all time. The potential of the leftovers really doesn’t matter, I believe. The possibility of films like Pain and Gain, Peebles, The Big Wedding, The Croods, G.I Joe Retaliation, Oblivion, 42, Oz The Great and Powerful, and other early calendar releases to take in a significant chunk of the remaining $30 million to break the record is pretty high. This doesn’t even take into account the smaller, artsy films and much older holdovers which are still out in theaters…films like The Company You Keep, The Place Beyond the Pines, and Mud.
What this all adds up to is the potential for one rip roaring box office weekend, probably one for the record books. What is clear is that movie goers will have a ton of options, and that studios will make a lot of money. In this age of front-loaded box office blockbusters, this particular Memorial Day Weekend could become the definition of blockbuster summer success.