Shop Talk: Memorial Day
By Jason Barney
May 22, 2013
Aren’t records made to be broken?
Enter 2011. Studios looked at the trends and pushed projects that would appeal to an array of fans, and it paid off handsomely. Leading the way was an unlikely sequel, The Hangover II, with a staggering $103 million. The goodwill of the original played a major part in the follow-up's success, but it was still seen by a ton of people. A franchise got its legs under it, and we get the third installment this year. The kids option in 2011 was Kung Fu Panda 2, which smashed above the $60 million dollar figure. The fourth of the Pirates of the Caribbean movies was in its second weekend, and brought in a solid $50 million. The counter-programming mega hit Bridesmaids was also an option and locked up nearly $21 million of profits. Another franchise, The Fast and the Furious, was doing business as well. With its car chases and sexy women, their fifth installment, Fast Five, was still in the top 10 after opening surprisingly strong in April.
That Memorial Day set the standard. 2011 brought in a hefty $276 million. It seemed unimaginable ten years ago. Surpassing such a record seemed impossible.
It may fall this year.
The films released two years ago serve as a foundation for what we may see this year, as some of the movies are so closely related. Franchise sequels will play a major role in whether the 2011 record falls. Comedy fans will be attracted to the potential of Hangover Part III. The first film was such a blunt surprise; its run during the summer of 2009 was totally unexpected. It was so beloved it earned the sequel, and now Warner Bros is going back to the bank for one final payday with this group of characters. It is extremely doubtful that Part III opens as well as Part II did. However, how far off can the numbers be? The Hangover Part I opened to $44 million. Part III will probably open somewhere between Parts I and II….so somewhere in the $60-80 million range seems like a good guess. Not record breaking on its own…but enough.
Next we have Universal’s Fast & Furious 6. This is another franchise that has built on previous success, especially with the last product. Marketed on the simple American bread and butter of revved up fast cars, big muscles, explosions, and hot women, the sixth entry provides a glimpse as to how strong this line actually is. The likely answer is that #6 won’t be the runaway success that Fast Five was when it opened to a totally unexpected $89 million back in 2009. However, this is a Memorial Day opener and there is every reason to believe the franchise will have very successful outing. Vin Diesel and The Rock together seem like the perfect summer pairing. It may not open to Fast Five’s $89 million….but $70-80 million seems like a low end figure. Anything more than that and 2011 is definitely in play.
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