One Month Out: Weekends of July 9 and 16, 2010
By BOP Staff
June 28, 2010
Kim Hollis: The Sorcerer's Apprentice is about as "Bruckheimer-y" as any of his recent films. I don't know what that means exactly, but it feels fun, and I think that similar to National Treasure, that light-heartedness seems like it translates well to audience enthusiasm. As Shalimar says, it looks similar in theme/tone to Percy Jackson or even The Vampire's Assistant, but there just seems to be a spark surrounding this one. I could be misinterpreting it entirely, but The Sorcerer's Apprentice is one of those kinds of Nic Cage movies that people like.
As for Inception, this is what I think it has going for it. In a summer where movies have been fairly ordinary and blah, resulting in a lot of disappointments, Inception looks completely different and mysterious and I think that's exciting for audiences. If it were being released in a summer season where we were seeing a string of blockbusters, I might think differently, but I'm thinking that Leo being the central star and the movie being hailed as "from the director of The Dark Knight" will really make a difference for Inception. Tracking is saying it's looking at $90 million for opening and I think that's quite high, but I'd love to see it happen.
David Mumpower: I am right in line with the rest of you with regards to The Sorcerer's Apprentice. Yes, this entire concept is dangerously close to having Urkel put on a #44 Hank Aaron jersey and take Right Field for the Atlanta Braves. Acknowledging this, it is what it is and I feel that this is the type of role where consumers continue to give Nic Cage the benefit of the doubt. As such, I anticipate a mid-$30s opening weekend and a final result slightly north of $100 million. I believe that more box office than this is a lot more likely than less, too.
With regards to Inception, I'm drinking the Kool-Aid more than the rest of you. I believe it's been marketed brilliantly, highlighting the tantalizing combination of a visually stimulating mystery world with the director of The Dark Knight working with Leonardo DiCaprio. I think this one opens around $75 million and finishes north of $200 million. Prior to the summer, when I was asking for feedback from casual movie-goers about anticipated summer films, there were only three films mentioned. Those were Iron Man 2, Toy Story 3 and Inception. The way the summer has played out, I’m a bit surprised Karate Kid wasn’t mentioned more, but I do believe that in the minds of most consumers, Inception is a project that looks special. That distinguishes it during a season chock full of uncreative projects.
Daron Aldridge: This has the potential to be a very big weekend for the box office with both new films bringing in north of $50 million, like in 2008 when WALL-E and Wanted opened to $63 million and $51 million respectively). That said, I think that it will be a reversal of fortune with Disney product taking second place this time. I will join the dogpile and say that I think that The Sorcerer's Apprentice looks much better in the trailers than I expected when I read this was being made (I believe my first reaction was "What the??"). The National Treasure comparison that keeps popping up is apt in my opinion. I can see this one bringing in $50 million (or the average of the National Treasure's openings).
Predicting the box office for Inception is akin to decoding the plotline of the secretive movie. I think it is brillant that in some ads Nolan gets top billing or mention over Leonardo. It's Warner Bros' way of promoting Inception and keeping the Batman franchise in front of us. I am 100% in line with David's informal survey results also as the three films that I would absolutely see at theaters this summer. That $90 million tracking prediction seems outrageous for such an enigmatic product but I think it could handily win this weekend with $70 million and a total of just under $200 million or it could just massively underperform like Nolan's other non-Batman product The Prestige.
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