One Month Out: Weekends of July 9 and 16, 2010
By BOP Staff
June 28, 2010
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Josh Spiegel: Predators opens on July 9th? Unless I've been living under a rock (very possible), Fox needs to get on this quick, because I wasn't aware it was coming up so soon. Despicable Me, on the other hand...well, I'm ready to stop seeing ads for that movie. I expect that will do well, unless Toy Story 3 and The Last Airbender are doing too well to get kids interested in something new. Predators...like I said, Fox needs to start marketing it.
Matthew Huntley: I suspect Despicable Me will be this year's Horton Hears a Who - open with about $45 million and finish somewhere between $150 and $180 million on the domestic side. The movie looks original and promising and Toy Story 3 will be entering its fourth weekend, so Despicable Me will have enough of the family audience to itself to become a steady hit.
As for Predators, the trailer is better than I thought it would be, but I'm not convinced the movie will be any good. It has an all too familiar feel and it's the kind of movie that could easily succumb to the same old cliches and make people angry. Supposedly, the characters in the movie are meant to be the world's dangerous killers, but I just don't see Adrien Brody that way. The brand name should allow it to open with $26 million or so (same as A-Team), but don't expect it to stick around for very long.
Jason Lee: If Despicable Me manages to open well, it'll have no reason to thank its first trailer, which made the film look like one long, extended Spy vs. Spy sequence.
Kim Hollis: I think Matthew's assessment of Despicable Me is a pretty good one. Horton Hears a Who range should be within reach, and also should make the studio pretty happy since they don't quite have the same "brand" of Pixar or even DreamWorks. They've been doing a really nice job with marketing in later weeks, making the minions the focus. They're pretty darned cute, and I think that along with having a fun character to latch onto, audiences could respond to the family aspect.
I'm not really feeling it for Predators, though. I think we've seen just how much audiences respond to Adrien Brody in non awards-bait films, which is to say, not at all. And while you might say that the Predators should be the draw for this film, I think you could have said the same thing for the mutant? creature? whatever? in Splice, and it came and went from theaters in a snap. Also, like Josh, I just haven't seen much by way of marketing.
David Mumpower: On a personal level, I think Despicable Me looks fantastic but in terms of anticipated box office, I seem to be on the low end of expectations here. With regards to Horton Hears a Who, we were talking about a well established Dr. Seuss property from the Ice Age team. Despicable Me is a new property from the ground up being distributed by Universal, a studio that has a sketchy history with animated releases. I think that an upper $20s opening weekend and a final result north of $85 million is the most reasonable scenario. I believe that international receipts will be the key to recouping the $110 million production budget. I'll be surprised if it earns the requisite domestic box office to justify that expense and I say that as someone who is very excited to see it.
Daron Aldridge: For me this one looks more like last fall's Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs than Horton Hears a Who - both stylistically and novelty-wise, with both being released in 3D. David's description of Despicable Me as "a new property from the ground up" pretty much fits Cloudy as well (even though I know that Cloudy was a kids' book first). So, I feel like Despicable will perform in kind. Let's say $35 million opening (thanks to 3D) and about $110 million at the finish. But breaking even domestically will probably not be considered a success and Carell will have to keep looking for an animation franchise to anchor.
Kim Hollis: The movies opening the weekend of July 16th are The Sorcerer's Apprentice (which actually starts on July 14th) and Inception. What are your thoughts and expectations with regard to these two films?
Brett Beach: The Sorcerer's Apprentice may be Bruckheimer's more family-friendly Walt Disney release this summer (PG vs. Prince of Persia's PG-13) and it does have the team of Cage and Turtletaub reunited from their National Treasure glory but I have a hunch it will be his second consecutive production this summer to fail to crack $100 million at the domestic box office. Cage may be able to talk at length about how life has prepared him for playing a sorcerer (see YouTube) but I don't know that this will have appeal for a wide audience. I have affection for Jay Baruchel from his Undeclared days but I think they would have been better going with Mickey Mouse reprising his role from Fantasia. I will go out on a limb and say that the gross will fall somewhere between She's Out of My League and How to Train Your Dragon.
Inception perplexes me because I know how I feel about Nolan's films and my two main complaints are: emotional coldness and lackluster endings. What little I know/understand about the plot suggests that it could well blow.my.mind but then I think about The Prestige and how much I actively disliked that experience and I wonder if I want to make the investment. From a box office standpoint, there will definitely be interest because of DiCaprio, the secretive plot, a strong gallery of big names in supporting roles, the goodwill from The Dark Knight and an original concept in a summer without many others. All that adds up to a strong opening weekend and a potential $200-million plus final figure of word-of-mouth is solid.
Josh Spiegel: On Inception, I agree with Brett about the potential take (though I completely disagree about Nolan's films having bad endings or being cold, but that's another discussion). It's been advertised pretty well for the past couple of months, but it's not Batman 3, big cast aside, so a solid gross is what should be expected. I do think Sorcerer's Apprentice has a better chance of crossing the $100 million plateau, if only because it, unlike Prince of Persia, actually looks like it might be fun. I'm not too wild about the movie, but I can see plenty of people running to the theatres for it.
Matthew Huntley: I agree with Josh that The Sorcerer's Apprentice looks fun, albeit stupid fun, but every time I've seen the trailer, many audience members, including myself, have been underwhelmed. It looks too Mummy 3-ish - with bloated special effects and a derivative story. Still, Jay Baruchel is growing on me and I like Nicolas Cage's attitude as the sorcerer. Director Jon Turteltaub has yet to prove he's talented beyond standard popcorn fare, but at least we know it will be light and probably charming. I can't see this movie going too far at the box-office ($130 million at most) because the marketplace will be so crowded, but expectations don't seem that high.
Every time I talk to somebody about the summer movie lineup, Inception remains the only one they're still waiting to see. The trailers have been great because we still don't know exactly what it's about, which is how all trailers should be. I don't think it will open to huge numbers (maybe $60 million) because I think people are going to wait to hear whether it's worth it, both from critics and audiences, but if it proves to be a critical success and overall crowd-pleaser, it will definitely have legs. I'm not convinced it will be either yet (expectations for Nolan are way too high after The Dark Knight, and even though he has yet to flagrantly disappoint us, it doesn't mean it's not possible).
Jason Lee: I'd be up for going to see either film opening that weekend, which is not something I would have been able to say at any other point this summer. Like Josh, I'd give the edge to The Sorcerer's Apprentice over Inception in terms of final gross, though I wonder if I'm over-estimating the power of the Disney brand in this post-Prince of Persia world.
Shalimar Sahota: There are already too many similar fantasy films with young children/teenagers turning out to have magical abilities, and The Sorcerer's Apprentice seems a bit too Percy Jackson to me. Maybe people will have caught on and had enough. However, I can see it outgrossing Bruckheimer's Prince of Persia. The trailers all look solid enough in being able to sell audiences the same story once again. Even Nicolas Cage can't help but say that, "it is fun." There's also a quick shot of Jay Baruchel struggling with a lot of dancing brooms! A $40 - 45 million opening could be achievable.
I know what Matthew is talking about in regards to Inception. The buzz just seems to be getting bigger, due to how mysterious it comes across (rather similar to The Matrix), and there is an audience out there hungry for an intelligent blockbuster. It's also one of the few original ideas that isn't based on any existing material this summer. Nolan has managed to make a name for himself as a director who consistently delivers quality, and plastering "From the director of The Dark Knight" on all the posters could generate a very high opening indeed. And if the quality turns out to be definitely there, then this could end up sticking around throughout the summer.
Kim Hollis: The Sorcerer's Apprentice is about as "Bruckheimer-y" as any of his recent films. I don't know what that means exactly, but it feels fun, and I think that similar to National Treasure, that light-heartedness seems like it translates well to audience enthusiasm. As Shalimar says, it looks similar in theme/tone to Percy Jackson or even The Vampire's Assistant, but there just seems to be a spark surrounding this one. I could be misinterpreting it entirely, but The Sorcerer's Apprentice is one of those kinds of Nic Cage movies that people like.
As for Inception, this is what I think it has going for it. In a summer where movies have been fairly ordinary and blah, resulting in a lot of disappointments, Inception looks completely different and mysterious and I think that's exciting for audiences. If it were being released in a summer season where we were seeing a string of blockbusters, I might think differently, but I'm thinking that Leo being the central star and the movie being hailed as "from the director of The Dark Knight" will really make a difference for Inception. Tracking is saying it's looking at $90 million for opening and I think that's quite high, but I'd love to see it happen.
David Mumpower: I am right in line with the rest of you with regards to The Sorcerer's Apprentice. Yes, this entire concept is dangerously close to having Urkel put on a #44 Hank Aaron jersey and take Right Field for the Atlanta Braves. Acknowledging this, it is what it is and I feel that this is the type of role where consumers continue to give Nic Cage the benefit of the doubt. As such, I anticipate a mid-$30s opening weekend and a final result slightly north of $100 million. I believe that more box office than this is a lot more likely than less, too.
With regards to Inception, I'm drinking the Kool-Aid more than the rest of you. I believe it's been marketed brilliantly, highlighting the tantalizing combination of a visually stimulating mystery world with the director of The Dark Knight working with Leonardo DiCaprio. I think this one opens around $75 million and finishes north of $200 million. Prior to the summer, when I was asking for feedback from casual movie-goers about anticipated summer films, there were only three films mentioned. Those were Iron Man 2, Toy Story 3 and Inception. The way the summer has played out, I’m a bit surprised Karate Kid wasn’t mentioned more, but I do believe that in the minds of most consumers, Inception is a project that looks special. That distinguishes it during a season chock full of uncreative projects.
Daron Aldridge: This has the potential to be a very big weekend for the box office with both new films bringing in north of $50 million, like in 2008 when WALL-E and Wanted opened to $63 million and $51 million respectively). That said, I think that it will be a reversal of fortune with Disney product taking second place this time. I will join the dogpile and say that I think that The Sorcerer's Apprentice looks much better in the trailers than I expected when I read this was being made (I believe my first reaction was "What the??"). The National Treasure comparison that keeps popping up is apt in my opinion. I can see this one bringing in $50 million (or the average of the National Treasure's openings).
Predicting the box office for Inception is akin to decoding the plotline of the secretive movie. I think it is brillant that in some ads Nolan gets top billing or mention over Leonardo. It's Warner Bros' way of promoting Inception and keeping the Batman franchise in front of us. I am 100% in line with David's informal survey results also as the three films that I would absolutely see at theaters this summer. That $90 million tracking prediction seems outrageous for such an enigmatic product but I think it could handily win this weekend with $70 million and a total of just under $200 million or it could just massively underperform like Nolan's other non-Batman product The Prestige.