One Month Out: Weekends of July 9 and 16, 2010
By BOP Staff
June 28, 2010
Daron Aldridge: For me this one looks more like last fall's Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs than Horton Hears a Who - both stylistically and novelty-wise, with both being released in 3D. David's description of Despicable Me as "a new property from the ground up" pretty much fits Cloudy as well (even though I know that Cloudy was a kids' book first). So, I feel like Despicable will perform in kind. Let's say $35 million opening (thanks to 3D) and about $110 million at the finish. But breaking even domestically will probably not be considered a success and Carell will have to keep looking for an animation franchise to anchor.
Kim Hollis: The movies opening the weekend of July 16th are The Sorcerer's Apprentice (which actually starts on July 14th) and Inception. What are your thoughts and expectations with regard to these two films?
Brett Beach: The Sorcerer's Apprentice may be Bruckheimer's more family-friendly Walt Disney release this summer (PG vs. Prince of Persia's PG-13) and it does have the team of Cage and Turtletaub reunited from their National Treasure glory but I have a hunch it will be his second consecutive production this summer to fail to crack $100 million at the domestic box office. Cage may be able to talk at length about how life has prepared him for playing a sorcerer (see YouTube) but I don't know that this will have appeal for a wide audience. I have affection for Jay Baruchel from his Undeclared days but I think they would have been better going with Mickey Mouse reprising his role from Fantasia. I will go out on a limb and say that the gross will fall somewhere between She's Out of My League and How to Train Your Dragon.
Inception perplexes me because I know how I feel about Nolan's films and my two main complaints are: emotional coldness and lackluster endings. What little I know/understand about the plot suggests that it could well blow.my.mind but then I think about The Prestige and how much I actively disliked that experience and I wonder if I want to make the investment. From a box office standpoint, there will definitely be interest because of DiCaprio, the secretive plot, a strong gallery of big names in supporting roles, the goodwill from The Dark Knight and an original concept in a summer without many others. All that adds up to a strong opening weekend and a potential $200-million plus final figure of word-of-mouth is solid.
Josh Spiegel: On Inception, I agree with Brett about the potential take (though I completely disagree about Nolan's films having bad endings or being cold, but that's another discussion). It's been advertised pretty well for the past couple of months, but it's not Batman 3, big cast aside, so a solid gross is what should be expected. I do think Sorcerer's Apprentice has a better chance of crossing the $100 million plateau, if only because it, unlike Prince of Persia, actually looks like it might be fun. I'm not too wild about the movie, but I can see plenty of people running to the theatres for it.
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