One Month Out Part II
By BOP Staff
March 19, 2010
Tom Macy: Despite being all assembled by similar SNL parts, all three cater to different sub demographics; so, it's possible they could all do well. I expect MacGruber to be the bottom feeder, but DVD sales and downloads will fix that. Death at a Funeral should fit into the Tyler Perry niche nicely, if perhaps not quite as lucratively. The real question is Date Night. Everyone LOVES the leads, so the ceiling could be pretty high. But as of now, no one's heard of this movie. They need to come out with a funny ass trailer soon and start playing it nonstop on NBC stat.
Brett Beach: Date Night: Will be hugetastic, even if it sucks (and considering that the plot involves mistaken identity, chases and violence and lots of crude jokes, it possibly will). When I heard Carell, Fey and the title, I was already jonesing. This is a funny (but awesome) case of two performers who still anchor weekly sitcoms having created the good will necessary to have people excited about paying big bucks to see them on the silver screen. That being said, I will be waiting for second run a few months down the line as I will be catching the other new release that weekend (K Stew and D-Fan rocking and rolling the Runaways biopic.) With my chances to see films in theaters few and far between currently, hot girls with guitars trump Carell/Fey/Wahlberg/Kunis/Franco. My prediction: mid-$40 million opening.
Death at a Funeral: Neil LaBute remaking a British comedy from three years ago with a mostly black cast? I wondered about the reasons behind this, but then thought of his films Nurse Betty and Lakeview Terrace and considered that it might not be such a misfire. The ensemble cast assembled is impressive and there most likely won't be many people who saw the first and refuse to see this out of some wellspring of loyalty. Based on the trailers for the two films, it appears to be quite similar, almost like Michael Haneke's remake of his own Funny Games, but perhaps there are surprises in store. Big names will help for at least a one week strong start. My prediction: $19 million opening.
MacGruber: I keep hoping for a Val Kilmer comeback but after Wonderland failed him and Spartan failed him and RD Jr got the heat and glow from Kiss Kiss Bang Bang, maybe Iceman should run for Governor of the Land of Enchantment. I never saw MacGyver, have seen MacGruber on SNL maybe twice and don't imagine that this will inspire legions of fans to turn out. I am thinking The Ladies Man-type grosses here, not Wayne's World. Prediction: $10 million opening.
Max Braden: Seeing how well Valentine's Day did on Valentine's Day, I wonder if Date Night could have done as well if it had been the big release that weekend. Certainly Fey and Carell have their fans, but The Office and 30 Rock are surprisingly not as widely watched as other weekly TV programs. Fey's Baby Mama opened at $17 million and finished at $60 million; Carrell's Get Smart opened at $38 million and finished at $130 million. I'd expect an opening just under $30 million for them, and I would pick that to be the best of the three upcoming movies, except that if we're looking at the Tyler Perry crowd for Death at Funeral's success, we have to consider that Madea Goes to Jail opened at $41 million last year. I could see Date Night winning the opening but Death at a Funeral winning the total gross. I actually want to see MacGruber most out of the three, but he's going to have to print some money out of paperclips and matchbooks to be a box office contender.
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