One Month Out Part II
By BOP Staff
March 19, 2010
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: In a move that has seemed inevitable ever since the Texas Chainsaw Massacre remake in 2003, Nightmare on Elm Street gets reimagined next month. Is this different than other horror remakes or is it just more of the same?
Michael Lynderey: Right, this is the one that completes the Unholy Trinity of remakes - Halloween, Friday the 13th, and Nightmare On Elm Street, the three big horror series of the '80s, have now all fallen under the knife. It's probably that top-tier franchise status that makes Nightmare '10 look more epic than your average bi-weekly horror remake, and box office wise, it probably will be. While I think $100 million is... more or less... out of the question, I'd say a total in between Friday the 13th '09 ($65 million) and Texas Chainsaw '03 ($80 million) is what we're looking at here, at the very least, and especially since March and April offer little else to satisfy horror fans. The real challenge here is trying to guess the number of sequels this'll inspire.
Josh Spiegel: I'm just so disappointed with the prospect of this movie. Granted, I'm not a huge fan of horror movies, but the idea of remaking this movie just stinks, too much, of being made for making money with the inevitable sequels. What's most frustrating is that the filmmakers have hired really good actors (at least two: Jackie Earle Haley and Connie Britton), and the movie will probably not be nearly as good as they are. That Haley is becoming the lead in what's likely going to be a successful movie is very heartening; unfortunately, it's just an odd and probably thankless road to go down. I just hope he keeps getting parts in more prestigious films.
Shalimar Sahota: Despite showing the beginnings of Freddy Krueger, everything else suggests that this could just as well be called Part 9.
Tom Macy: Jackie Earle Haley is a beast. So yay for him and his paycheck. I expect a $30 million opening and a 70% nosedive in the wake of Iron Man 2. Indeed, more of the same.
Jim Van Nest: I actually do think this one is different than the other remakes. First, because Michael Meyers and Jason Voorhees, no matter how scary they may be, they have no personality. Any really big dude can play them. Freddy Kruger is different. He has a personality. Second, the concept of a killer haunting your dreams and turning your dream death to your real death is, in my opinion, way cooler than a big plodding bad guy that just keeps coming and coming. I like the Jackie Earle Haley casting and I think this has the definite chance to be a surprise at the box office.
Brett Beach: Regular readers of Chapter Two know that I pull out my best "grumpy old man" routine about reboots of franchises. But as much as I love the 1980s slasher films I grew up on, and in particular have great affection for Fred Krueger, I am not affronted by and am rather looking forward to this new installment. It may simply be "part nine" but the latest trailer has me excited. I think Haley is as good a pick as could be hoped for and in his voice and attitude seems to have made the effort to imprint his own personal stamp on the character. It seems likely that a second week fall in the high 60% is to be expected, but I dont see why this shouldn't have as strong or slightly stronger an opening as Friday the 13th (call it $38-$42 million for the three days) and an outside chance of hitting $100 million if it turns out to be, you know, good, or fun, or both. That may be a lot to ask from Platinum Dunes, but I think and hope the wild card here is director Samuel Bayer, a music video director for over 20 years (Smells Like Teen Spirit, anyone!) finally making his big-screen debut.
Kim Hollis: I actually think that the Freddy films are unique enough and iconic enough that this might be a pretty big opening - bigger than Friday the 13th, even. It's all going to be in the marketing, and I have no reason to think that the studio won't get the advertising in front of the right people. I will say that this does make me feel super old, though. I saw the original Nightmare on Elm Street in the theater (it was a double feature sneak with Terminator, a little film no one had ever heard of at the time).
David Mumpower: This remake almost feels like one that circumstances dictated rather than one that was planned. Once Friday the 13th made its semi-triumphant return (solid box office, abominable film quality), the die was cast for Freddy Krueger. Like others have mentioned in the thread, the good news here is that the casting demonstrates circumspect decision making. I'm inclined to give this the benefit of the doubt and go see it in theaters, something I wouldn't have done had Jackie Earl Haley not been involved. I very much enjoyed his recent work in Shutter Island and am loving his character on Human Target. His presence matters to me; for the rest of potential consumers, it's a modern take on Nightmare on Elm Street. Teens will want to see the movie their parents watched on the day during which they were conceived.
Death to MacGruber on Date Night at a Funeral
Kim Hollis: A trio of comedies featuring current and former SNL stars will be released in April. What are your expectations for Date Night, MacGruber and Death at a Funeral, respectively?
Michael Lynderey: Date Night is the one to watch - you know, the movie that opens with $42 million out of nowhere and adds yet another $100 million earner to an already-busy April. I really think Fey and Carell are as lucrative a combination as that. Death at a Funeral clearly has the star power and the target audience strong enough to get it to some very good looking numbers ($60 million total?), even if critics will probably give it the run-around. As for MacGruber... ummm... MacGruber... Well, we can't all be #1.
Josh Spiegel: I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Death at a Funeral will be the most successful film among these three. If the distributor is smart, they'll be marketing the movie towards the same crowds who go to Tyler Perry movies; though this film is a remake of a recent British comedy that got released in the States, having Chris Rock, Martin Lawrence, Tracy Morgan, and other talented African American actors involved is very helpful. MacGruber....I just don't know why people thought this movie should be made. Sure, I laughed at the trailer: when Val Kilmer shows up as the bad guy. The movie just seems born to fail. With regards to Date Night, I just don't see the movie doing very well. Yes, it has Carell and Fey, but Carell's only a guaranteed box-office draw when he's a 40-year old virgin. This movie looks like crap, despite having a boatload of talented actors. It might do all right, but not so well as to be the big surprise of the month.
Tom Macy: Despite being all assembled by similar SNL parts, all three cater to different sub demographics; so, it's possible they could all do well. I expect MacGruber to be the bottom feeder, but DVD sales and downloads will fix that. Death at a Funeral should fit into the Tyler Perry niche nicely, if perhaps not quite as lucratively. The real question is Date Night. Everyone LOVES the leads, so the ceiling could be pretty high. But as of now, no one's heard of this movie. They need to come out with a funny ass trailer soon and start playing it nonstop on NBC stat.
Brett Beach: Date Night: Will be hugetastic, even if it sucks (and considering that the plot involves mistaken identity, chases and violence and lots of crude jokes, it possibly will). When I heard Carell, Fey and the title, I was already jonesing. This is a funny (but awesome) case of two performers who still anchor weekly sitcoms having created the good will necessary to have people excited about paying big bucks to see them on the silver screen. That being said, I will be waiting for second run a few months down the line as I will be catching the other new release that weekend (K Stew and D-Fan rocking and rolling the Runaways biopic.) With my chances to see films in theaters few and far between currently, hot girls with guitars trump Carell/Fey/Wahlberg/Kunis/Franco. My prediction: mid-$40 million opening.
Death at a Funeral: Neil LaBute remaking a British comedy from three years ago with a mostly black cast? I wondered about the reasons behind this, but then thought of his films Nurse Betty and Lakeview Terrace and considered that it might not be such a misfire. The ensemble cast assembled is impressive and there most likely won't be many people who saw the first and refuse to see this out of some wellspring of loyalty. Based on the trailers for the two films, it appears to be quite similar, almost like Michael Haneke's remake of his own Funny Games, but perhaps there are surprises in store. Big names will help for at least a one week strong start. My prediction: $19 million opening.
MacGruber: I keep hoping for a Val Kilmer comeback but after Wonderland failed him and Spartan failed him and RD Jr got the heat and glow from Kiss Kiss Bang Bang, maybe Iceman should run for Governor of the Land of Enchantment. I never saw MacGyver, have seen MacGruber on SNL maybe twice and don't imagine that this will inspire legions of fans to turn out. I am thinking The Ladies Man-type grosses here, not Wayne's World. Prediction: $10 million opening.
Max Braden: Seeing how well Valentine's Day did on Valentine's Day, I wonder if Date Night could have done as well if it had been the big release that weekend. Certainly Fey and Carell have their fans, but The Office and 30 Rock are surprisingly not as widely watched as other weekly TV programs. Fey's Baby Mama opened at $17 million and finished at $60 million; Carrell's Get Smart opened at $38 million and finished at $130 million. I'd expect an opening just under $30 million for them, and I would pick that to be the best of the three upcoming movies, except that if we're looking at the Tyler Perry crowd for Death at Funeral's success, we have to consider that Madea Goes to Jail opened at $41 million last year. I could see Date Night winning the opening but Death at a Funeral winning the total gross. I actually want to see MacGruber most out of the three, but he's going to have to print some money out of paperclips and matchbooks to be a box office contender.
Kim Hollis: I think Date Night's problem is that it looks painfully unfunny - even to the most loyal of fans of Fey and Carell. Still, the timing might be just right for it. Death at a Funeral actually has a pretty amusing trailer that gets a good response in theaters, and I think it could actually cross demographics more than the Tyler Perry stuff people have been mentioning. Chris Rock doesn't have the best track record, though. And the less said about MacGruber, the better.
David Mumpower: Date Night forcibly reminds me of a long forgotten 1980s romantic comedy called Cross My Heart. It teamed two ostensibly funny people in Martin Short and Annette O'Toole yet fundamentally failed to provide any laughs. That Date Night trailer is cringe inducing to me, but I think that pairing of Carell and Fey is enough to provide a certain level of comfort to movie goers who would otherwise be dubious of its appearance. I think this will be a nice-sized hit. Death at a Funeral is the movie I expect to be the best in the conversation, primarily because Chris Rock makes me laugh. A lot. That MacGruber abomination...I don't know what that's about, but it makes me feel good about my decision to pretend as if Saturday Night Live doesn't exist. That trailer is Year One-ian.