Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

February 17, 2007

The kids from Terabithia rush to hear the news about how well their movie performed.

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Five new releases hit theaters this weekend, and most of them actually make money!

Ghost Rider

The heavily-hyped Nicholas Cage comic book adaptation comes up huge on Friday, delivering a solid $15.8 million. This is President's Day weekend, where Monday will act as Sunday-light, meaning above-average to incredible weekend multipliers all around thanks to the extra day. Ghost Rider likely had a good deal of a Friday night rush factor to it, but throwing in a fourth day will offset that somewhat. I'd look for a four-day tally of slightly over $50 million.

Bridge to Terabithia

A surprise second place goes to children's book adaptation Bridge to Terabithia, with a Friday showing of $6.3 million. This is definitely the type of movie that is going to end up a big, big winner over the long weekend, as a weekend multiplier nearing 5 is not out of the question. Last year's President's Day weekend winner, Eight Below, had a Friday take of $5.1 million and earned just under $25 million over four days, a 4.9 weekend multiplier. I'm expecting something close here for Bridge to Terabithia, which would mean a four-day take of $29.6 million

Music & Lyrics

The Hugh Grant/Drew Barrymore romantic comedy earned $4.1 million Friday, on top of the $5.5 million earned since its Valentine's Day release. Music and Lyrics should come in with a four-day weekend of about $14.3 million and the pre-weekend earnings give it just under $20 million in six days. That sounds a tad disappointing, but it should make up for it with some decent legs over the next few weeks.




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Tyler Perry's Daddy's Little Girls

Though Tyler Perry has dominated the last two Februarys with surprise hits, Daddy's Little Girls does not continue the streak, as it comes in with a Friday total of $2.9 million giving it $8.6 million since Wednesday. Diary of a Mad Black Woman and Madea's Family Reunion both had similar multipliers, so we'll use the same one for Daddy's Little Girls, bumped up slightly with Monday thrown into the mix. I see a four-day weekend of $10.1 million, and $18.8 million since Valentine's Day.

Breach

Clearly released on the wrong weekend, Breach is the worst of the five new releases this weekend, with $2.9 million (just a few thousand behind Daddy's Little Girls). Look for a four-day total of $9.2 million.

Notable Holdovers

Barely qualifying as notable are last weekend's two releases, Norbit and Hannibal Rising. Norbit drops 56% from a weekend ago and Hannibal Rising falls 66%. Norbit should still earn another $19 million this weekend, while Hannibal Rising should come in with $5.2 million.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Four-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 Ghost Rider 50.1
2 Bridge to Terebithia 29.6
3 Norbit 19.2
4 Music and Lyrics 14.3
5 Daddy's Little Girls 10.1
6 Breach 9.2
7 Because I Said So 5.5
8 Hannibal Rising 5.2
9 Night at the Museum 4.2
10 The Messengers 4.0

     


 
 

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