Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

February 17, 2007

The kids from Terabithia rush to hear the news about how well their movie performed.

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Five new releases hit theaters this weekend, and most of them actually make money!

Ghost Rider

The heavily-hyped Nicholas Cage comic book adaptation comes up huge on Friday, delivering a solid $15.8 million. This is President's Day weekend, where Monday will act as Sunday-light, meaning above-average to incredible weekend multipliers all around thanks to the extra day. Ghost Rider likely had a good deal of a Friday night rush factor to it, but throwing in a fourth day will offset that somewhat. I'd look for a four-day tally of slightly over $50 million.

Bridge to Terabithia

A surprise second place goes to children's book adaptation Bridge to Terabithia, with a Friday showing of $6.3 million. This is definitely the type of movie that is going to end up a big, big winner over the long weekend, as a weekend multiplier nearing 5 is not out of the question. Last year's President's Day weekend winner, Eight Below, had a Friday take of $5.1 million and earned just under $25 million over four days, a 4.9 weekend multiplier. I'm expecting something close here for Bridge to Terabithia, which would mean a four-day take of $29.6 million

Music & Lyrics

The Hugh Grant/Drew Barrymore romantic comedy earned $4.1 million Friday, on top of the $5.5 million earned since its Valentine's Day release. Music and Lyrics should come in with a four-day weekend of about $14.3 million and the pre-weekend earnings give it just under $20 million in six days. That sounds a tad disappointing, but it should make up for it with some decent legs over the next few weeks.


Tyler Perry's Daddy's Little Girls

Though Tyler Perry has dominated the last two Februarys with surprise hits, Daddy's Little Girls does not continue the streak, as it comes in with a Friday total of $2.9 million giving it $8.6 million since Wednesday. Diary of a Mad Black Woman and Madea's Family Reunion both had similar multipliers, so we'll use the same one for Daddy's Little Girls, bumped up slightly with Monday thrown into the mix. I see a four-day weekend of $10.1 million, and $18.8 million since Valentine's Day.


Clearly released on the wrong weekend, Breach is the worst of the five new releases this weekend, with $2.9 million (just a few thousand behind Daddy's Little Girls). Look for a four-day total of $9.2 million.

Notable Holdovers

Barely qualifying as notable are last weekend's two releases, Norbit and Hannibal Rising. Norbit drops 56% from a weekend ago and Hannibal Rising falls 66%. Norbit should still earn another $19 million this weekend, while Hannibal Rising should come in with $5.2 million.

Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Four-Day)
Estimated Gross
1 Ghost Rider 50.1
2 Bridge to Terebithia 29.6
3 Norbit 19.2
4 Music and Lyrics 14.3
5 Daddy's Little Girls 10.1
6 Breach 9.2
7 Because I Said So 5.5
8 Hannibal Rising 5.2
9 Night at the Museum 4.2
10 The Messengers 4.0



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