Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

February 3, 2007

No, you cannot see my secret stash of Catch That Kid memorabilia!

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Yet another Super Bowl weekend is counter-programmed with a romantic comedy and a horror film. Will they ever learn?

The Messengers

Apparently there was something only a small portion of people could hear and that was to go see The Messengers. It topped the box office on Friday with $6 million. Last year's Super Bowl weekend also saw a horror film release, When A Stranger Calls. That had a Friday take of $9 million, and led to a $21.6 million weekend when you take into account the extreme void at the box office that is Super Bowl Sunday. That's Friday-to-Sunday multiplier of 2.4, and that's about what The Messengers will end up with as well, giving it a weekend take of $14.4 million, which will be more than enough to win the weekend.


Because I Said So

The romantic comedy attempt at counter-programming Super Bowl weekend got eviscerated by critics and seemed to be ignored by the target demo as well, with only $4.6 million Friday. This type of release will also suffer from tomorrow's game, but not to the extent of something as disposable as The Messengers. In the vein of last year's Something New and 2005's The Wedding Date, something around 2.7 is the fate of Because I Said So. That would be a $12.4 million weekend.

Notable Holdovers

Last week's top two films suffer big drops that absolutely everyone saw coming. Epic Movie falls 61% from a Friday ago and Smokin' Aces drops 56%. These drops might increase somewhat when the final weekend numbers come in as Sunday will be extra miserable. Give Epic Movie a little over $7 million and Smokin' Aces $6.2 million.

Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Estimated Gross
1 The Messengers 14.4
2 Because I Said So 12.4
3 Epic Movie 7.1
4 Smokin' Aces 6.2
5 Night at the Museum 6.1
6 Stomp the Yard 3.9
7 Dreamgirls 3.6
8 Pan's Labyrinth 3.4
9 The Pursuit of Happyness 3.0
10 Catch and Release 2.5



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