Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

December 9, 2006

Don't tell me you don't like the things on my forehead.

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Four new films get rid of some of the dead wood hanging around the box office, but there are some mixed results all around.


Mel Gibson's Apocalypto sneaks into the top slot on Friday, with $4.9 million. At this point, it's tough to say whether this film was helped or hurt by the publicity generated by Gibson's drunken tirade that made headlines earlier this year. What we can figure is that as an action movie, it's more likely to have a slightly below average weekend multiplier. I'm going to go with a 2.7, which would give it a $13.2 million weekend, though that might not be enough to stay on top when the full weekend estimates come in.

The Holiday

The romantic comedy offering this weekend comes in with a couple of hundred thousand dollars less than Apocalypto, with $4.4 million Friday. Being a bit more likely to have a higher weekend mutiplier as a romantic comedy, I expect The Holiday to be very close to being on top when we get the full numbers. I'm giving it a fairly conservative 3.0 mutliplier, which would give it $13.2 million for the weekend.


Blood Diamond

The heavily advertised Leonardo DiCaprio/Djimon Hounsou/Jennifer Connelly film could not overcome Leo's terrible accent and middling reviews, as it only earned $2.7 million on Friday. It should come in with around $7.5 million for the weekend and that might be the end of its brief run as an Oscar contender.

Unaccompanied Minors

With Happy Feet still being the number one choice for families, Home Alone Meets The Terminal came in about as expected with $1.6 million on Friday. It should still be above average as far as weekend multipliers go, but it's going to come in with a pretty mediocre $5 million for the entire weekend.

Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Estimated Gross
1 The Holiday 13.2
2 Apocalypto 13.2
3 Happy Feet 12.5
4 Casino Royale 8.7
5 Blood Diamond 7.5
6 Deja Vu 5.9
7 The Nativity Story 5.4
8 Unaccompanied Minors 5.0
9 Deck the Halls 3.8
10 Borat 2.6



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