Black Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

November 25, 2006

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You can always count on the Thanksgiving box office weekend to serve up a few turkeys.

Happy Feet

Earning $15.1 million Friday, Happy Feet is easily the biggest beneficiary of the Thanksgiving holiday as it tops Casino Royale on Friday, something it didn't do last week. Remember that this weekend brings below average multipliers to every film as most people saw what they wanted to see from Wednesday to Friday. That said, Happy Feet will still stay on top for a second weekend with an estimated $36.2 million over the three days and $49.6 million over five days.

Casino Royale

James Bond pulled in just a shade under $13 million on Black Friday, which puts it right in line with Die Another Day's Thanksgiving run from four years ago (meaning this one held better since Die Another Day beat its first weekend by $7 million). Look for a weekend of $31.1 and $45.3 since Wednesday, as it's perhaps on its way to being the highest grossing Bond film ever.

Deja Vu

Our first opener, starring Denzel Washington, takes third with $8.1 million, virtually equal to its Wednesday and Thursday earnings. That's not a bad take for the first three days, but again, Saturday and Sunday are virtually kneecapped by the holiday. We're looking for $19 million in the three day weekend and a five-day take of $27.2

Deck the Halls

The Matthew Broderick/Danny DeVito holiday comedy earned $4.9 million on Black Friday and $4.8 million in its first two days. Yours, Mine and Ours this is not. Figure around $12 million from Friday to Sunday, which makes $16.8 million in five days.




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Bobby

The Robert F. Kennedy biopic that stars everyone in Hollywood earned $1.9 million after expanding to wide release on Thanksgiving Day with $1.2 million. Not getting enough glowing reviews that label it a serious Oscar contender, it's going to get stuck in the middle of the pack and swept away in a week or two. Bobby should come in with around $4.7 million for the Friday to Sunday period, with just under $6 million in four days.

The Fountain

The extremely weird Darren Aronofsky returns with the extremely weird The Fountain, earning $1.5 million Friday on its 1,049 screens. It should barely make the top ten for the weekend, which is actually a small miracle. Call it $3.7 million for the weekend and $5.4 million in the Wednesday to Sunday period

Tenacious D in The Pick of Destiny

Eleventh place brings us our final opener, Jack Black returning to his roots with a big screen Tenacious D movie. It earned $1.4 million Friday, and will likely miss the top ten when the weekend estimates come in. Look for $3.3 million for the weekend, about $5.4 million over five days and for Jack Black to conveniently leave it off his resume.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 Happy Feet 36.2
2 Casino Royale 31.1
3 Deja Vu 19.0
4 Deck the Halls 11.9
5 Borat 11.1
6 Santa Clause 3 10.3
7 Stranger than Fiction 6.2
8 Flushed Away 5.7
9 Bobby 4.7
10 The Fountain 3.7

     


 
 

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