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By Steve Mason
November 10, 2006
When Snakes On A Plane tanked in August, the new conventional wisdom was that you can't trust buzz. In that case, some bloggers spent the better part of a year talking up the Sam Jackson thriller, and then they were the only people to show up on opening weekend. Borat (Fox) actually found a way to outperform its buzz.
People in the industry were absolutely stunned by Borat's opening weekend. Sacha Baron Cohen's brilliant improv documentary generated approximately $31,000 per screen for $26 million on just 837 screens. There is no precedent for this explosive performance. It is the third best wide release per screen average in history, trailing only Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest and Spider-Man.
The best comparable film - fewer than 1,000 screens and controversial subject matter - is Fahrenheit 9/11. In June of '04, it opened on 868 screens for an opening weekend of $24 million and a per screen of $27,000. The Michael Moore doc expanded to 1,725 screens the following week and did about $10,000 per screen for a second weekend of $16 million.
What happens when Borat invades red state America?
Industry tracking shows that America's appetite is whetted, especially Under 25 Men. That is the traditional blockbuster demo. Figuring that half of the country despises Michael Moore, it's fair to assume that Borat will top Fahrenheit 9/11's week two per screen average, plus the Fox offering goes wider than that political doc, about 2,500 locations. Look for the Kazakhstani pseudo-journalist to post an even more sensational $29-$32 million this weekend.
Borat really damages the two new releases that need Under 25 Men, Harsh Times (MGM) and The Return (Focus).
Christian Bale stars in Harsh Times, which is written and directed by David Ayer. This is his directorial debut after writing the screenplays for films like Fast & Furious, S.W.A.T and Training Day. Critics are split on the movie, but, even in the positive reviews, words like grim, bleak, sour and haunting are used. I'm told that industry tracking shows almost no awareness in the marketplace, Look for a meager gross of $2-$5 million and a quick exit from the local multiplex.
Harsh Times By The Numbers
Top 5 David Ayer-Written Films � Domestic Box Office
1. The Fast & the Furious � $144,533,000
2. S.W.A.T. - $116,934,000
3. U-571 - $77,122,000
4. Training Day _ $76,631,000
5. Dark Blue - $9,250
Top 5 Christian Bale Films � Domestic Box Office
1. Batman Begins - $205,343,000
2. Pocahontas - $141,579,000
3. Shaft - $70,334,000
4. Little Women - $50,083,000
5. Reign of Fire - $43,061,000
The Return is yet another run-of-the-mill horror picture, and it's coming on the heels of Saw III, The Grudge 2 and Texas Chainsaw Massacre: The Beginning, which were all released in October. This is certain to extend the Focus Features 2006 losing streak, following the dismal box office performance of the well-received Catch A Fire. Despite the presence of Buffy the Vampire Slayer, Sarah Michelle Gellar, it's tracking softer than any of the three October scare fests. Horror pics can sometimes surprise to the upside, but this looks to do no better than $6-$9 million on opening weekend.
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