New at BOP: Review: Matrix Resurrections Movie Review: Moonfall Movie Reviews: Scream The #1 Movie in America November Forecast The Many Saints of Newark October Forecast New Trivia Question All site updates Share & Save   Tweet Print this column

After modestly-budgeted successes Mystic River and Million Dollar Baby, Clint Eastwood's most expensive film yet arrives at multiplexes this weekend. His WWII action/drama Flags of Our Fathers opens at 1,800 locations tomorrow (10/20), and it should easily win the weekend box office competition.

There is no question that Eastwood is in his prime as a filmmaker. Mystic River was filled with memorable performances and won Oscars for Sean Penn and Tim Robbins, while Million Dollar Baby captured Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress – Hilary Swank and Best Supporting Actor – Morgan Freeman. He has earned the right to take a bag full of money from a studio (in this case DreamWorks and Warner Bros.) and go off to make a movie with no interference. (In this case, he made two movies, with Letters from Iwo Jima due early next year.)

Only two WWII films in history have topped $100 million (Saving Private Ryan and Pearl Harbor), but Flags has a real chance to match that feat. Paramount distribution exec Don Harris tells me that opening on a rather limited 1,800 screens is part of a strategy to let the film build slowly. Instead of playing every major city location, the distrib wanted to play in smaller towns where the film is tracking well. "Instead of taking a sixth run in Long Beach, CA, we decided to open in Topeka." The drift is clear. This is a film that will play well in Red States as well as it plays in Blue States. It's patriotic, but it also raises issues about "selling" a war that are relevant as we find our country mired in Iraq.

There are no major stars here to drive the box office, but it's a talented cast, including Jesse Bradford, Barry Pepper, Paul Walker and Robert Patrick. The standouts are Ryan Phillippe and especially Adam Beach (already generating Best Supporting Actor buzz). I'm told the tracking is into the double-digits with Under 25 Males, Over 25 Males and Over 25 Females, and it's been improving all week. I say Flags of Our Fathers will deliver $14-$16 million, which will be enough to win the weekend.

Flags of Our Fathers By The Numbers

Top 10 Clint Eastwood-Directed Films – Domestic Box Office
1. Unforgiven - $101,157,000
2. Million Dollar Baby - $100,492,000
3. Space Cowboys - $90,464,000
4. Mystic River - $90,135,000
5. The Bridges of Madison County - $71,516,000
6. Sudden Impact - $67,642,000
7. Absolute Power - $50,068,000
8. Firefox - $46,708,000
9. Heartbreak Ridge - $42,724,000
10. Pale Rider - $41,410,000

Top 10 Films Starring Clint Eastwood – Domestic Box Office
1. In the Line of Fire - $102,314,000
2. Unforgiven - $101,157,000
3. Million Dollar Baby - $100,492,000
4. Space Cowboys - $90,464,000
5. Every Which Way But Loose - $85,196,000
6. The Bridges of Madison County - $71,516,000
7. Any Which Way You Can - $70,687,000
8. Sudden Impact - $67,642,000
9. Absolute Power - $50,068,000
10. Tightrope - $48,143,000

Top 5 Ryan Phillippe Films – Domestic Box Office
1. Crimson Tide - $91,387,000
2. I Know What You Did Last Summer - $72,586,000
3. Crash - $54,580,000
4. Gosford Park - $41,308,000
5. Cruel Intentions - $38,328,000

Top 5 Adam Beach Films – Domestic Box Office
1. Windtalkers - $40,914,000
2. Joe Dirt - $27,087,000
3. Mystery, Alaska - $8,891,000
4. Squanto: A Warrior's Tale - $3,342,000
5. The Big Empty - $2,500,000

Top 5 Jesse Bradford Films – Domestic Box Office
1. Presumed Innocent - $86,303,000
2. Bring It On - $68,379,000
3. Romeo+Juliet - $46,351,000
4. Clockstoppers - $36,989,000
5. Swimfan - $28,564,000

Top 5 Barry Pepper Films – Domestic Box Office
1. Titanic - $600,788,000
2. Saving Private Ryan - $216,540,000
3. The Green Mile - $136,801,000
4. Enemy of the State - $111,549,000
5. We Were Soldiers - $78,122,000

Top 5 Paul Walker Films – Domestic Box Office
1. The Fast & the Furious - $144,533,000
2. 2 Fast 2 Furious - $127,154,000
3. Eight Below - $81,612,000
4. She's All That - $63,366,000
5. Varsity Blues - $52,894,000

Top 5 Robert Patrick Films – Domestic Box Office
1. Terminator 2 - $204,843,000
2. Wayne's World - $121,697,000
3. Walk the Line - $119,519,000
4. Diehard 2 - $117,540,000
5. Spy Kids - $112,719,000

All-Time Top 5 WWII Movies – Domestic Box Office
1. Saving Private Ryan - $216,540,000
2. Pearl Harbor - $198,542,000
3. Schindler's List - $96,065,000
4. The English Patient - $78,676,000
5. Patton - $61,749,000
6. Life Is Beautiful - $58,247,000
7. A Bridge Too Far - $50,750,000
8. The Thin Red Line - $36,400,000
9. Memphis Belle - $27,441,000
10. The Bridge On the River Kwai - $27,200,000

The Prestige (Buena Vista) has been one of the more-anticipated films of the fall, but it looks like it will play softer than expected. The general vibe among critics is that the latest from Christopher Nolan (Memento, Batman Begins) is great fun, but not particularly serious. It is not an Oscar contender and the A-list cast, including Hugh Jackman, Scarlett Johansson, Christian Bale, Michael Caine and David Bowie, won't show up on anybody's lists for best performances of the year.

My hunch is that the fact that The Prestige is the second period magician film of the year (following August's The Illusionist) has taken the shine off of this one. Buena Vista's campaign is very good, with a killer poster and trailers/ads that play strongly, so an upside surprise is possible, but I'm projecting just $10-$12 million for opening weekend.

The Prestige By The Numbers

Top 3 Christopher Nolan-Directed Films – Domestic Box Office
1. Batman Begins - $205,343,000
2. Insomnia - $67,355,000
3. Memento - $25,544,000

Top 5 Hugh Jackman Films – Domestic Box Office
1. X-Men: The Last Stand - $234,362,000
2. X2: X-Men United - $214,949,000
3. X-Men - $157,299,000
4. Van Helsing - $120,177,000
5. Swordfish - $69,772,000

Top 5 Christian Bale Films – Domestic Box Office
1. Batman Begins - $205,343,000
2. Pocahontas - $141,579,000
3. Shaft - $70,334,000
4. Little Women - $50,083,000
5. Reign of Fire - $43,061,000

Top 5 Scarlett Johansson Films – Domestic Box Office
1. The Spongebob Squarepants Movie - $85,417,000
2. The Horse Whisperer - $75,383,000
3. In Good Company - $45,806,000
4. Lost In Translation - $44,585,000
5. The Island – $35,818,000

Top 5 Michael Caine Films – Domestic Box Office
1. Austin Powers in Goldmember - $213,307,000
2. Batman Begins - $205,343,000
3. Miss Congeniality - $106,807,000
4. Bewitched - $63,313,000
5. The Cider House Rules - $57,545,000

Top 5 David Bowie Films – Domestic Box Office
1. Labyrinth - $12,729,000
2. The Last Temptation of Christ - $8,373,000
3. Into the Night - $7,562,000
4. The Hunger - $5,979,000
5. Yellowbeard - $4,300,000

There's generally room for a heartwarming family film like this remake of My Friend Flicka. Tim McGraw gives this film real red state appeal (although I'm told McGraw's single from the soundtrack charted long ago). Maria Bello is one of my favorite actresses since The Cooler (not to mention her super hot sex scene on the stairs in David Cronenberg's A History of Violence), and Alison Lohman is a talented up-and-comer.

Last October 21st, DreamWorks released Dreamer: Inspired By A True Story, another girl and her horse movie, and it did $9 million on its opening weekend on its way to $35 million domestic. That seems like a pretty good prediction model for Flicka (Fox). $9 million is in the cards for this one.

Flicka By The Numbers

Top 3 Alison Lohnman Films – Domestic Box Office
1. Big Fish - $66,809,000
2. Matchstick Men - $36,906,000
3. White Oleander - $16,357,000

Top 5 Maria Bello Films – Domestic Box Office
1. Payback - $81,526,000
2. World Trade Center - $70,247,000
3. Coyote Ugly - $60,786,000
4. Secret Window - $48,022,000
5. A History of Violence - $31,504,000

All-Time Top 5 Movies About Horses – Domestic Box Office
1. Seabiscuit - $120,277,000
2. The Horse Whisperer - $75,383,000
3. Spirit: The Stallion of the Cimarron - $73,280,000
4. Hidalgo - $67,303,000
5. The Electric Horseman - $61,801,000

Marie Antoinette (Sony) from writer/director Sofia Coppola (Lost In Translation) looks like a complete misfire. The negative buzz began at Cannes, where this Barbie goes to Versaille version of the young French royal who lost her head received snickers and eye-rolling. Now Sony has taken an unusual release approach.

This picture is opening on just 800 screens this weekend. When you've got a good film, you may open on 800 screens, look to generate buzz, then expand in coming weeks. If you've got a bad movie, you open on 2,500 screens and try to squeeze as much box office out of opening weekend as possible, then let the film die. In this case, Sony seems to be dumping the film on 800 screens with no expansion in the cards. They don't even have enough confidence in Marie Antoinette to go with one big wide
weekend.

Tracking is very soft, critics are lukewarm, and this one will come and go quickly. Coppola is still a fascinating director, but this film will be regarded as a critical and commercial misfire. I'm looking for $4-$6 million this weekend.

Marie Antoinette By The Numbers

Top 5 Kirsten Dunst Films – Domestic Box Office
1. Spider-Man - $403,706,000
2. Spider-Man 2 - $373,585,000
3. Interview with the Vampire - $105,264,000
4. Jumanji - $100,475,000
5. Bring It On - $68,379,000

Top 5 Jason Schwartzman Films – Domestic Box Office
1. Bewitched - $63,313,000
2. The Hitchhiker's Guide To the Galaxy - $51,085,000
3. Rushmore - $17,105,000
4. I Heart Huckabees - $12,785,000
5. Shopgirl - $10,284,000

Top 5 Judy Davis Films – Domestic Box Office
1. The Break-Up - $118,703,000
2. Absolute Power - $50,068,000
3. A Passage To India - $27,187,000
4. The Ref - $11,439,000
5. Deconstructing Harry - $10,686,000

Top 5 Rip Torn Films – Domestic Box Office
1. Men In Black - $250,690,000
2. Men In Black II - $190,418,000
3. Dodgeball: A True Underdog Story - $114,326,000
4. Yours, Mine, Ours - $53,412,000
5. City Heat - $38,348,000

Here is the weekend box office forecast from your humble columnist and independent theatre owner:

1. Flags of Our Fathers - $16 million
2. The Departed - $12 million
3. The Prestige - $11 million
4. The Grudge 2 - $10 million
5. Flicka - $9 million
*Marie Antoinette - $5 million