Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

June 10, 2006

Which one of these will pull a Barbaro?

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Does Cars bring to an end Pixar's reign of domination at the box office? Hardly.


Pixar's Cars got off to a $19.5 million start, slightly under the $20.5 million earned by The Incredibles on opening night and the $20.2 million Finding Nemo scored. Whereas Nemo had a 3.47 weekend multiplier in late May and The Incredibles had a 3.43 in November, it's pretty easy to tell where Cars is going to end up this weekend. We'll go with 3.45 for Cars, giving it an impressive $67.3 million weekend.

The Omen

After the fantastic 6/6/06 opening and the complete collapse following, The Omen has still earned way more money than it had any right to, with $20 million coming in its first three days. Friday, it added $5.7 million to that total. Considering a lot of people interested in this movie have already seen it, its internal multiplier is not going to be very good. Give it a 2.4, for a $13.7 million weekend and about $34 million since its Tuesday opening.


A Prairie Home Companion

Robert Altman's latest takes advantage of a very soft tail end of the box office chart and lands at seventh with $1.4 million. Give it a weekend multiplier in the vicinity of 3.0, for a $4.2 million weekend.

Notable Holdovers

After last week's solid opening, The Break-Up falls 51% from last Friday with $6.8 million. That's uncharacteristic of a romantic comedy, but the rulebook got thrown out the window after its breakout performance. It should improve a little bit over the remainder of the weekend, howeve - good enough to pull in $22.5 million in its second weekend.

Over The Hedge, now with some solid competition in the form of Cars, falls 43% from last week. It'll come in this week with $11.6 million as it joins the pack of also-rans.

Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Estimated Gross
1 Cars 67.3
2 The Break-Up 22.5
3 X-Men: The Last Stand 16.1
4 The Omen 13.7
5 Over The Hedge 11.6
6 The Da Vinci Code 11.2
7 A Prairie Home Companion 4.2
8 Mission: Impossible 3 3.3
9 RV 2.1
10 Poseidon 1.7



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