Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

April 8, 2006

You can't throw me out of the game simply because you paid for Deuce Bigelow.

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Never underestimate the power of incessantly advertised stupid comedies that weren't screened for critics. Let this be a lesson to us all.

The Benchwarmers

The sports comedy opened to a very solid $6.7 million Friday. Stupid comedies usually have somewhat below average weekend multipliers, and I figure a strong Friday night rush factor was at work here, mostly thanks to the presence of Jon "Napoleon Dynamite" Heder. Figure a multiplier in the realm of 2.7, good for an $18.1 million weekend.


Take the Lead

The Antonio Banderas dance movie managed $4.2 million Friday, a pretty decent opening for something like this. Targeted at both young and urban audiences, look for Take the Lead to finish the weekend with around $11 million for the weekend.

Lucky Number Slevin

The Bruce Willis-led noir earned a tepid $2.3 million on its opening night, corresponding to about one dollar for every ad I saw in the past week. The best reviewed film of the weekend (not that that's saying all that much), Lucky Number Slevin should come in at a little higher than average Friday to Sunday multiplier, though that would only be a weekend total of around $7.2 million.

Phat Girlz

Mo'Nique's comedy about, um, phat girlz, manages to make the top ten with $936,000. The rest of the weekend won't be much kinder, so give it around $2.5 million.

Notable Holdovers

Ice Age: The Meltdown had a complete meltdown as it falls 61% from last Friday. It's still on top though, but not by too much. The rest of the weekend will work wonders for it, however, as Saturday and Sunday matinees will bring it to just a little bit over $30 million in weekend number two.

Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Estimated Gross
1 Ice Age: The Meltdown 30.6
2 The Benchwarmers 18.1
3 Take the Lead 11.0
4 Inside Man 8.4
5 Lucky Number Slevin 7.2
6 Failure to Launch 3.6
7 ATL 3.5
8 V for Vendetta 3.1
9 Phat Girlz 2.5
10 Stay Alive 2.0



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