Monday Morning Quarterback Part Two
By BOP Staff
April 5, 2006
Roll, bounce, rock, skateKim Hollis: The roller skating story ATL earned $12.5 million this weekend. Did you realize that this is a movie about roller skating and do you know who Tip Harris is?
Tim Briody: I just knew that the guy from Outkast who didn't sing Hey Ya! was in it.
David Mumpower: I know who Tip O'Neill is. Do I get partial credit for that?
Kim Hollis: While I knew that the movie involved roller skating (that was the big point emphasized when I created our movie listing for it), I wouldn't have had a clue about that content from the commercials. I've never heard of Tip Harris and can't believe *his* roller skating movie did better than Lil' Bow Wow's.
David Mumpower: Sidenote: ATL is also my World Series pick this year!
Tim Briody: I had no idea about the rollerskating part. It wasn't in the commercials, that's for sure.
David Mumpower: They clearly ran away from the rollerskating aspect after Roll Bounce disappointed. Sadly, Roll Bounce is the far superior film.
Kim Hollis: I'll reserve complete judgment on the topic until I see ATL. It's actually gotten okay reviews.
David Mumpower: Does it have Sweetness in it? No? End of discussion.
Next up for Fillion: Snooty Barber in Spider-Man IVKim Hollis: While two films were succeeding to an unexpected degree, two others failed completely. The first of them, Slither, opened to only $3.7 million despite excellent reviews. Is this debut in line with your expectations?
David Mumpower: I was braced for this, but I can assure you I was hoping for a much stronger outing for Slither. The commercials are great, and the grotesquely swelled woman saying, "I think there's something wrong with me!" is a money shot. Sadly, the lack of recognizable faces and clear B-movie atmosphere screamed "wait until DVD".
Tim Briody: I had Slither pegged for around $10 million, in line with the continuing slide of horror films since the start of the year. I didn't think it would just be a complete non-starter.
David Mumpower: Following up on Tim's point, I do find it surprising that a horror film has finally bombed. We really had not seen one of those since Dark Water.
Kim Hollis: I had thought it could do at least as well as Stay Alive. I guess crappy-looking video game movies edge out fun-looking slug movies with Captain Mal Reynolds.
Tim Briody: I think we might be able to blame Nathan Fillion as well.
Kim Hollis: He's the new Bruce Campbell!
Tim Briody: We can call it the Serenity Curse.
True story: Sharon Stone is talking about directing Basic Instinct 3 herselfKim Hollis: As for the other massive failure of the weekend, Basic Instinct 2 earned a paltry $3.2 million. What the hell were MGM and Sony thinking?
Tim Briody: "You know what would be really funny? A Basic Instinct sequel!"
Kim Hollis: "Sharon Stone completely destroyed Catwoman and has no reason to ever work again. Let's put her in a sequel to a 100-year-old movie!"
Tim Briody: I think it was a joke that went too far. Seriously.
Kim Hollis: "April Fool!"
David Mumpower: They were thinking the same thing that they are thinking with Rocky Balboa: we want to be fired more than anyone in the history of the industry. Don Simpson ruined that for everybody. Now they have to try so much harder.
Kim Hollis: But Milo Ventimiglia is Rocky Balboa Jr.! I'm conflicted.
David Mumpower: If Sharon Stone met Relevance at a party, an introduction would be required.
Tim Briody: I think we have to thank the movie for attempting to bump Larry the Cable Guy out of the top ten so we didn't have to talk about it again.
Caper film can't return to the scene of the crimeKim Hollis: Inside Man fell 46% from last weekend and is currently sitting at $59.8 million. Is this about what you expected for this film?
Tim Briody: A bit too high considering it's by just about all acounts, good.
Kim Hollis: I was hoping it would have better staying power as well. It's a terrific film.
David Mumpower: Agreed. It's a slightly better than average holdover but relative to quality, it has to feel disappointing to all involved. There just is no solid second weekend of box office for 90% of films these days.
Tim Briody: More and more, it seems like anything under 30% makes you The Sixth Sense in today's market.
Movie executives are happy to have some money to roll around in for a changeKim Hollis: The top 12 grossed a staggering $136.5 million, a 40% increase from the same weekend last year. Does this in any way alter your feelings about the current state of box office?
David Mumpower: If anything, it reinforces my perception that the films consumers perceive to be huge will continue to stand out while the rest will be left holding the bag.
Kim Hollis: As we've mentioned several times, there seems to be a hook required to entice viewers to the theater. For Ice Age 2, it's the fact that it's a safe, known quantity. I would posit that the next one that has a chance to break out over the $30 million mark is United 93.
David Mumpower: We should be positive about the fact that we have seen a solid opening for three consecutive weekends including a legitimate tentpole performance. I just can't help thinking that the disconnect between the Inside Man/V for Vendetta performances vs. the Ice Age: The Meltdown ones grows more dramatic with each iteration.
Tim Briody: I'd actually vote for Scary Movie 4 for the next breakout film. That is again going with the known quantity thing.
Kim Hollis: Honestly, I forgot Scary Movie 4. Though perhaps that doesn't bode well for its prospects.
We just presumed it was Madagascar 2Tim Briody: Of course, that opens the same weekend as The Wild, Disney's Madagascar redux.
Kim Hollis: Which is exactly what people will perceive it to be, Tim.
David Mumpower: So, is it good or bad to be perceived as a duplication of a recent hit?
Kim Hollis: I would say it's never good to be the second out of the box with the same idea. That's why ATL didn't have any skating in its commercials!
David Mumpower: What if The Wild turns out to have rollerskating in it? How does that change the formula?
Tim Briody: Biggest film of the year!
David Mumpower: Sadly, that might turn out to be Ice Age: The Meltdown.
Kim Hollis: I don't know, I think that might only work if they are roller skating penguins.
David Mumpower: If nothing else, at least we have gotten a videogame idea out of this discussion.
Kim Hollis: Snakes on a Plane has the top box office award of 2006 all wrapped up.
Tim Briody: Agreed.