Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

February 25, 2006

What's that you said about Martin Lawrence being funnier than me?

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It's time to stop betting against Tyler Perry whenever he releases a movie in the last weekend of February.

Madea's Family Reunion

Tyler Perry does it again, as the man behind last year's Diary of a Mad Black Woman tops the Friday box office with a solid $10.4 million. That's well ahead of the $7.4 million opening day of Diary of a Mad Black Woman. A 2.96 weekend multiplier earned by last year's film seems like a good fit here, so look for Madea's Family Reunion to earn a cool $30.7 million for the weekend.

Running Scared

Proof that people don't see Paul Walker movies for Paul Walker. Running Scared earned a paltry $1 million Friday. Figure about under $3 million for the weekend, but Walker still has Eight Below to fall back on, so don't shed any tears for him.



It's not another Hoodwinked for The Weinstein Company, as the animated release took in just $860,000 Friday. Even a multiplier in the vicinity of 4.0 for the weekend would still give Doogal a weekend total of only $3.4 million.

Notable Holdovers

Eight Below holds very strongly, off only 21% from last Friday. With its very solid family-friendly multiplier last weekend, look for an overall weekend decline of under 20% and around $17 million for the weekend.

Date Movie is not so lucky, falling 53.2% from last Friday's opening, but it could've been a lot worse. Call it a weekend drop a little under 50%, good for a weekend total of around $10 million.

Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Estimated Gross
1 Madea's Family Reunion 30.7
2 Eight Below 16.8
3 The Pink Panther 12.1
4 Date Movie 9.9
5 Curious George 8.0
6 Firewall 6.9
7 Final Destination 3 5.8
8 Doogal 3.4
9 Running Scared 2.8
10 Freedomland 2.5



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