Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

February 25, 2006

What's that you said about Martin Lawrence being funnier than me?

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It's time to stop betting against Tyler Perry whenever he releases a movie in the last weekend of February.

Madea's Family Reunion

Tyler Perry does it again, as the man behind last year's Diary of a Mad Black Woman tops the Friday box office with a solid $10.4 million. That's well ahead of the $7.4 million opening day of Diary of a Mad Black Woman. A 2.96 weekend multiplier earned by last year's film seems like a good fit here, so look for Madea's Family Reunion to earn a cool $30.7 million for the weekend.

Running Scared

Proof that people don't see Paul Walker movies for Paul Walker. Running Scared earned a paltry $1 million Friday. Figure about under $3 million for the weekend, but Walker still has Eight Below to fall back on, so don't shed any tears for him.




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Doogal

It's not another Hoodwinked for The Weinstein Company, as the animated release took in just $860,000 Friday. Even a multiplier in the vicinity of 4.0 for the weekend would still give Doogal a weekend total of only $3.4 million.

Notable Holdovers

Eight Below holds very strongly, off only 21% from last Friday. With its very solid family-friendly multiplier last weekend, look for an overall weekend decline of under 20% and around $17 million for the weekend.

Date Movie is not so lucky, falling 53.2% from last Friday's opening, but it could've been a lot worse. Call it a weekend drop a little under 50%, good for a weekend total of around $10 million.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 Madea's Family Reunion 30.7
2 Eight Below 16.8
3 The Pink Panther 12.1
4 Date Movie 9.9
5 Curious George 8.0
6 Firewall 6.9
7 Final Destination 3 5.8
8 Doogal 3.4
9 Running Scared 2.8
10 Freedomland 2.5

     


 
 

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