Oscar Nominations Preview
By Dan Krovich
January 30, 2006
Picture
Two films picked up nominations from all six major guilds (Producers, Directors, Writers, Actors Best Cast, Cinematographers, Editors) as well as a Golden Globe nomination for Best Picture. They are Brokeback Mountain and Good Night, and Good Luck. It's hard to imagine accomplishing that and then missing out on an Oscar nomination, so they should both be considered locks with Brokeback Mountain being the favorite to ultimately win the award. Crash also showed good success by picking up nominations in 5/7 of those organizations. Walk the Line didn't fare as well with the guilds, but if box office means anything, it's the only real contender with over $100M in box office gross, and that should be enough to give it at least a shaky spot in the fourth position. If that leaves only one slot open, three films are likely in competition for it. Capote received a somewhat surprising amount of guild support. The Constant Gardener picked up writing and editing nominations from the guilds as well as a Golden Globe nomination. Munich has stumbled in its Oscar campaign, but will they be able to squeeze by with a nomination based on its pedigree? Long shots include Cinderella Man, Match Point, and A History of Violence.
Director
Again the top two in the Picture category are also likely locks here too, so you can put Ang Lee and George Clooney at the top. It gets trickier from there, as several of the picture contenders (Walk the Line, Crash, Capote) are considered to be more acting vehicles than directing tour de forces. That probably leaves room for Fernando Meirelles in the third spot as he was able to pick up a directing nomination for City of God without a Best Picture nomination or a DGA nomination. Paul Haggis and Bennett Miller did score DGA nominations this year, which bodes well for them here. But there are also Steven Spielberg and James Mangold to worry about, not to mention longshots Ron Howard, David Cronenberg, and Woody Allen.
Actor
Three performances stand out in this category - Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote), Heath Ledger (Brokeback Mountain), and Joaquin Phoenix (Walk the Line). They are all locks and will likely be part of a close race for the trophy. David Strathairn (Good Night, and Good Luck) seems to be running a notch behind, but seems fairly certain of a nomination. That leaves one slot up for grabs. Russell Crowe (Cinderella Man) and Ralph Fiennes (The Constant Gardener) have history to work with, but Terrence Howard (Hustle and Flow) could find himself nominated as he would perhaps be the more fun choice here. That pretty much exhausts the list of realistic possibilities, though Jeff Daniels (The Squid and the Whale), Johnny Depp (Charlie and the Chocolate Factory), and Eric Bana (Munich) could come out of nowhere.
Actress
This space is reserved for Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line). If anyone has not only a nomination but also the award already sewn up, it's her. That leaves the rest of the category a bit wide open particularly since several performances that could have been considered leads have campaigned in the supporting category. Felicity Huffman (Transamerica) and Judi Dench (Mrs. Henderson Presents) seem like safe bets for nominations, while Charlize Theron (North Country) is running just a step behind them. Once again, that seems to leave one slot open. Will it go to an Academy favorite like Joan Allen (The Upside of Anger), Gwynneth Paltrow (Proof), or Renee Zellweger (Cinderella Man) or to a relative newcomer like Ziyi Zhang (Memoirs of a Geisha) or Keira Knightley (Pride and Prejudice)?
Supporting Actor
While the lead actor category seems top heavy, the supporting category shows a lot of depth due to some true ensemble films in the mix. George Clooney's (Syriana) Golden Globe win and general likeability should get him a spot here. Matt Dillon seems to have taken a lead among the Crash actors, but Don Cheadle from the same movie is well liked by the Academy, likely giving the film two nominations here. Jake Gyllenhaal will probably get swept in on a Brokeback wave though the one possible sticking point is if people consider him a lead in the film. Will this be the year that Oscar finally recognizes Paul Giamatti (Cinderella Man) with a nomination? Still in the mix are William Hurt (A History of Violence), Bob Hoskins (Mrs. Henderson Presents), and Kevin Costner (The Upside of Anger).
Supporting Actress
One reason that the Best Actress category is so barren can be found here in the crowded Supporting Actress area. Perhaps to get out of the way of the Reese juggernaut, anyone and everyone who could make a remote case to do so has campaigned for Supporting Actress instead of Lead. The Academy doesn't have to follow those campaigns, of course (see Keisha Castle-Hughes), but there are several substantial performances in this category. Rachel Weisz (The Constant Gardener) perhaps has a slight edge after her Golden Globe win and Michelle Williams (Brokeback Mountain) and Catherine Keener (Capote) seem like safe bets too. It gets shaky after that. Will the Academy go for veterans Frances McDormand (North Country) and Shirley MacLaine (In Her Shoes) or will they welcome newcomers Amy Adams (Junebug) and Scarlett Johansson (Match Point)? Also seeking a nomination here are Laura Linney (The Squid and a Whale) and Maria Bello (A History of Violence), but they could be the victims of being caught between two categories. If they want to award the Crash ensemble here, Thandie Newton would be the likely choice in what is the deepest category this year.
Adapted Screenplay
The heavy hitters seem to be in the adapted category this year, and that means that Best Picture contenders should rule this category. That likely gives three of the nominations to Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana (Brokeback Mountain), Dan Futterman (Capote), and Jeffrey Caine (The Constant Gardener). There is still strength beyond those three to make competition for the final two slots tough. A History of Violence was a critical darling that will likely miss out on most categories, but the writers will likely give Josh Olson a nomination here. With one slot left, this could also be a place to reward Munich by nominating Tony Kushner and Eric Roth, while Gill Dennis and James Mangold (Walk the Line) could piggyback on a Best Picture nomination to get a screenwriting nod. Deborah Moggach's adaptation of Pride and Prejudice was also pretty impressive and is the only classic literature in the bunch.
Original Screenplay
George Clooney and Grant Heslov (Good Night and Good Luck) and Paul Haggis and Bobby Moresco (Crash) seem likely to add a screenplay nomination to a Best Picture nomination for their film. Noah Baumbach (The Squid and the Whale) also seems a fairly sure thing to pick up a nomination, though in his case it will be the film's only nod. Stephen Gaghan (Syriana) is a bit of a wildcard here considering that he was looking like a likely nominee in the adapted category before the Academy declared his screenplay to be an original work. Category confusion could cost him a nomination. That could leave a spot open for Woody Allen (Match Point), who has always had success in this category even with some of his lesser works or for Cliff Hollingsworth and Akiva Goldsman (Cinderella Man). Even more fun would be if the Academy followed the lead of the Writer's Guild and gave a nomination to Judd Apatow and Steve Carell for The 40 Year-Old Virgin, though the Academy is not as likely to be that hip.
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