Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

January 21, 2006

Somebody forgot to kill Phillip!

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Thanks to Kate Beckinsale and skintight latex outfits, the big winner this weekend is the audience.

Underworld: Evolution

The Kate Beckinsale sequel opened with a solid $10.5 million Friday, an uptick from the $9 million Underworld earned in September of 2003. That movie had a stellar 2.41 weekend multiplier on its way to a $21.7 million weekend. With the sequel factor and all, I don't see why history won't repeat itself here, so we're looking at a weekend tally of $25.3 million, still a very good opening number for January.

The End of the Spear

The religious drama earned $1.5 million on just 1,162 theaters, about as good as it could have hoped for considering its subject matter, target audience and screen count. It should come in at a little under $5 million for the weekend.

The New World

Note to Terrence Malick: nobody cares when you release a movie any more. The New World did take in $1.2 million on Friday, and around $4 million awaits it as a weekend total, but still.

Notable Holdovers

Glory Road falls 41.2%, which is pretty good since Coach Carter fell 53% on its second Friday. Look for a 35% weekend decline.

Hoodwinked drops only 22% from last Friday, and if it has a similar multiplier as it did last weekend, we'll be looking at an incredibly low weekend decline, perhaps around the 10% mark.

On the heels of its Golden Globes performance and screen count increase, Brokeback Mountain has a 34% increase from last Friday. Don't look now, but $50 million is in striking distance by next weekend.

Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Estimated Gross
1 Underworld: Evolution 25.3
2 Hoodwinked 10.5
3 Glory Road 8,8
4 The Last Holiday 8.2
5 Brokeback Mountain 7.7
6 Fun WIth Dick and Jane 6.0
7 The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe 5.5
8 The End of the Spear 4.9
9 Hostel 4.2
10 The New World 3.8



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