Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

July 23, 2005

Wedding Crashers is the only movie that deserves a picture this weekend.

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See, people, this is what happens when you remake a film that has appeared on Mystery Science Theater 3000.

The Island

Michael Bay's latest release earned a paltry $4.4 million Friday, ending the solid streak set by recent openers. A rather steep decline from Bay's last film, 2003's Bad Boys II, which had a $16.8 million first day, this one should be able to improve a little on that sequel's multiplier (2.75), but not by much. We'll give it a 2.85, which gives The Island a $12.6 million weekend.

The Bad News Bears

Billy Bob Thornton's remake of the 1979 baseball classic took in $4.1 million Friday. Bad Santa probably works well as a comparison, but opened over a Thanksgiving weekend so we can't even begin to compare. Instead, we'll look at director Richard Linklater's School of Rock (3.28) and last weekend's The Wedding Crashers (3.2). I like those numbers and would give The Bad News Bears a 3.2 for the weekend, good for $13.1 million.

The Devil's Rejects

Rob Zombie's sequel to The House of 1000 Corpses managed $3 million on 1,757 screens. That's a little bit under what 1000 Corpses earned in its entire opening weekend back in 2003. As its 2.46 multiplier attests, all the Zombie and gore fans came out opening night. I expect a similar fate for The Devil's Rejects, giving it $7.4 million for the weekend.

Hustle & Flow

A decent $2.7 million on just over 1,000 screens, Hustle & Flow scored the highest per screen average of anything in the top ten. It might not be able to keep that pace over the entire weekend, but it's no The Island, either. Call it a 2.7 and a $7.3 million weekend.

Notable Holdovers

Charlie and the Chocolate Factory falls a rather steep 56.7% from last Friday, but still holds onto first place as the only potential contender for the top bombed out. It should be able to get its weekend decline just under 50%, and a second weekend total of $28.7 million should be in store.

The Wedding Crashers also holds its position from last week, only off a fantastic 27.6% from last Friday, immediately becoming the leggiest film of the summer. The overall decline should be in the low 20% range as this and Charlie and the Chocolate Factory will be neck and neck for the top spot. Give it $26.1 million and a big hit for Vince Vaughn and Owen Wilson.

Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Estimated Gross
1 Charlie and the Chocolate Factory 28.7
2 The Wedding Crashers 26.1
3 The Bad News Bears 13.1
4 The Island 12.6
5 Fantastic Four 12.0
6 War of the Worlds 8.4
7 The Devil's Rejects 7.4
8 Hustle & Flow 7.3
9 Batman Begins 3.9
10 Mr. and Mrs. Smith 3.7



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