Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

June 4, 2005

Yeah, the idea of you marrying Kenny Chesney is pretty silly.

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After a solid holiday weekend, it's back to the snoozer that is the 2005 box office year.

Cinderella Man

The boxing drama starring Russell Crowe and Renee Zellweger and directed by Ron Howard opened to a not-bad $6.1 million. While that places it behind last weekend's openers and Revenge of the Sith, it's very near the first day tally of its best extrapolation comparison, 2003's Seabiscuit. The Tobey Maguire horse movie opened to $6.3 million in July of that year, on its way to a weekend of $20.8 million, for a 3.26 multiplier. With similar reviews and audience appeal, Cinderella Man should duplicate that figure. We'll go with an even 3.3 multiplier, giving Cinderella Man $20.1 million.

The Sisterhood of the Travelling Pants

Earning $3.7 million in its first two days of release, the movie with the unnecessarially long title took in another $3.8 million Friday, which is actually a decent figure, all things considered. With familiar faces to teenage and tweenage girls and subject matter right up their alley, SotTP appears to be striking a chord with its target audience. We'll give it a 3.1 multiplier for a $11.7 million weekend and $15.4 million in five days.

Lords of Dogtown

The skateboarding movie crashes and burns with a mere $2.6 million opening night. Its relatively low screen count didn't help matters, but it's also aimed at a narrow audience, most of whom likely turned out opening night. A mutliplier in the vicinity of 2.7 is in the works, good for a $7 million weekend.

Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith

Falling 53.2% from last Friday, Revenge of the Sith finds itself $10 million short of the $300 million mark after 16 days in release. The drop seems high, but it's firmly between The Phantom Menace (38.2%) and Attack of the Clones (58%) for second weekend declines. Both films rebounded nicely on Saturday and Sunday, so $300 million is a lock after Saturday's figures are in. Sith should end up with a weekend of $28.3 million.

The Longest Yard

Adam Sandler's remake drops 44.3% from last Friday, but just like last week, finds itself on top for one day. It won't be there when full weekend figures are out, but it can take solace in the fact that the drop wasn't bad at all. The weekend decline will be as low as 40%.

Madagascar

Madagascar slips 39.1% from a week ago, but there's nothing to worry about here for DreamWorks since the remainder of the weekend is where it will really shine. It should be tops for the weekend with about $33 million, a decline of 30% from its three-day figure last weekend.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 Madagascar 33.0
2 The Longest Yard 28.5
3 Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith 28.3
4 Cinderella Man 20.1
5 The Sisterhood of the Travelling Pants 11.7
6 Lords of Dogtown 7.0
7 Monster In Law 5.1
8 Crash 3.4
9 Kicking and Screaming 2.0
10 Unleashed .9

     


 
 

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