Friday Numbers Analysis

By Tim Briody

April 9, 2005

It costs this many gold coins to get a suntan like this!

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Note to Hollywood executives: this is what happens when you try to start the summer box office season in April. Isn't May early enough for you? Sheesh.


The big desert action movie is the winner Friday, taking in an estimated $6.3 million. However, winner is a term used very loosely here as Sahara is likely to end up with a sub-average internal multiplier, being your typical action movie. We'll give Sahara a 2.7 multiplier, good for a $17 million weekend.

Fever Pitch

The Nick Hornby adaptation by the Farrelly Brothers earned $4.4 million Friday, a figure that can be considered somewhat disappointing. Unlike Sahara, however, it's still got something to look forward to over the remainder of the weekend as it's clearly the date movie of choice over anything else in theaters right now. Fever Pitch should end up with a 3.1 multiplier for the weekend, giving the baseball movie $13.6 million.

Notable Holdovers

Sin City falls a whopping 61.3% from last Friday, signalling that we have one of the new great cult movies on our hands (and that the "hate it" side of the ledger was perhaps a bit larger than the "love it" side). Saturday and Sunday numbers will drop the overall decline to around the 50-55% mark, but it is not long for this world.

Beauty Shop drops 57.1% from a Friday ago, meaning it won't have a repeat performance in the legs department like its Barbershop predecessors. We figure a 50% decline for the weekend and a swift trip to the second-run theaters from there.

Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Estimated Gross
1 Sahara 17.0
2 Sin City 14.9
3 Fever Pitch 13.6
4 Guess Who 7.7
5 Beauty Shop 6.4
6 Robots 4.4
7 Miss Congeniality 2: Armed and Fabulous 3.6
8 The Pacifier 2.9
9 The Ring Two 2.7
10 The Upside of Anger 2.5



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