Friday Numbers Analysis

By Tim Briody

April 2, 2005

We're very sorry that Tom Hanks got the Polar Express part over you.

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Arguably the first event film of the year (sorry, Will Smith), the black and white graphic novel adaptation Sin City arrived in theaters Friday, and based on its opening day gross, we're either looking at the start of a new franchise or a new cult classic.

Sin City

Earning $11.6 million on Friday, Sin City is off to an excellent start. The question now is where it goes from here. The Friday figure tops films with similar gore levels, such as Quentin Tarantino's Kill Bill films (and Robert Rodriguez's Once Upon a Time in Mexico). However, all of those films had internal multipliers below 2.7. Sin City figures to fall into this category and word-of-mouth will take it from there. Give Sin City a 2.6 multiplier (the Final Four this weekend doesn't help too much either) and a still very impressive $29.9 million weekend.

Beauty Shop

Queen Latifah's spinoff from the Barbershop series took in $4.5 million Friday after earning $3.8 million since its Wednesday opening. The Friday number is a few million under the opening nights of both Barbershop and its sequel. Both of those films managed 3.0 multipliers, but Beauty Shop will likely not have the same fate. It should have a multiplier around 2.7 for a still manageable $12.1 million weekend and about $16 million over the five-day period.

The Upside of Anger

After a few solid weekends in limited release, the Kevin Costner/Joan Allen drama adds just under 1,000 screens and lands in the top ten with $1.3 million. It's had some very good weekend multipliers in limited release and that should translate pretty well to this weekend as well. We'll give it a 3.2 multiplier and a $4.2 million weekend.

Notable Holdovers

Guess Who dropped 46.8% from last Friday. No, really. What I mean is, Guess Who is going to be down about 30% from its take last weekend. Oh, never mind....

Moving on, Miss Congeniality 2: Armed and Fabulous falls an alarming 50.9% from a week ago, which romantic comedies aren't supposed to do, but sequels certainly do all the time. Since it is a romantic comedy, it should reduce the bleeding to around the 35% mark, but since it's a sequel, it's not going to hold onto its 3,200 screens for much longer, so the drops are only going to rise from here.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 Sin City 29.9
2 Guess Who 14.4
3 Beauty Shop 12.1
4 Robots 11.3
5 Miss Congeniality 2: Armed and Fabulous 9.1
6 The Pacifier 6.7
7 The Ring Two 6.3
8 The Upside of Anger 4.2
9 Hitch 3.2
10 Ice Princess 2.8

     


 
 

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