Friday Numbers Analysis

By Tim Briody

March 26, 2005

Seriously, you're telling me this whole project is just an episode of Punk'd?

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Two tired-looking comedies check in to the box office this weekend and both find a decent amount of success in a marketplace devoid of that sort of thing.

Guess Who

The pseudo-update of Guess Who's Coming To Dinner took in a very good $8.2 million Friday, easily outpacing all other films in the marketplace. Really the first comedy targeted at teens and adults since Hitch seven weekends ago, the duo of Fox sitcom stars Bernie Mac and Ashton Kutcher clicked with audiences, at least for one weekend. Johnson Family Vacation, which similarly opened on Easter weekend, scored a 2.9 internal multiplier last year. Easter has traditionally taken a bite out of the weekend somewhat, so a 2.8 is probably best case scenario here, indicating a $23 million Friday-to-Sunday for Guess Who.

Miss Congeniality 2: Armed and Fabulous

The other comedy released this weekend, the critically-slaughtered sequel to 2000's Miss Congeniality, inexplicably opened on Thursday, earning $3.1 million. That, along with Guess Who, may have kneecapped its Friday figure, where it took in an estimated $5.6 million. In its favor for a positive internal multiplier is that it's a date movie and that the original was well-received. Against it are Guess Who, the sequel-factor and Easter. We'll cop out and call it 2.5 to give the Sandra Bullock sequel $14 million for the weekend and $17 million in four days.

Notable Holdovers

The Ring Two plunges a mammoth 64.8% from last Friday, signalling the death knell for this franchise. Look for a 60% decline from its total last weekend.

Ice Princess drops 35%, indicating decent legs with the target audience. A weekend decline as low as 25% could be in store for the Disney flick.

Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Estimated Gross
1 Guess Who 23.0
2 Robots 19.5
3 Miss Congeniality 2: Armed and Fabulous 14.0
4 The Ring Two 14.1
5 The Pacifier 12.0
6 Ice Princess 5.0
7 Hitch 4.9
8 Hostage 4.6
9 Million Dollar Baby 3.2
10 Be Cool 3.1



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