Friday Numbers Analysis

By Tim Briody

March 12, 2005

Ewan McGregor is just a smidge disappointed over the Friday numbers.

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Arguably the biggest release of 2005 to date arrived Friday, and it might just be time to stop immediately assuming a computer animated film that's not by Pixar or called "Shrek" will break box office records.

Robots

With a $10 million opening day take, the rumblings can start that the bloom may be off the computer-animated rose. This is a step back from the $13.7 million Fox's Ice Age earned on its first day on this weekend three years ago. All isn't lost for the weekend, though, as last year's Shark Tale had a 3.75 internal multiplier (Ice Age had a 3.37.) The real money is made on Saturday and Sunday. We'll give Robots a 3.7 multiplier, good for a $37 million weekend.

Hostage

Bruce Willis' Hostage took $3.3 million Friday in a scant (for these days) 2,123 theaters. 2003's Tears of the Sun managed a 2.93 internal multiplier, but we'll drop that to 2.8 or so for Hostage, giving it about $9.2 million for the weekend.

Notable Holdovers

In the wake of Robots, The Pacifier drops 45.7% from last week. It'll recover a bit over the weekend to get its drop under the 40% mark.

Be Cool gets even cooler at the box office, falling 54.2% from last Friday. A decline of around 50% is in store for the remainder of the weekend, and it will quickly be shown the door from here.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 Robots 37.0
2 The Pacifier 18.3
3 Be Cool 11.9
4 Hostage 8.9
5 Hitch 8.5
6 Diary of a Mad Black Woman 4.8
7 Million Dollar Baby 4.7
8 Constantine 3.7
9 Man of the House 1.9
10 Cursed 1.5

     


 
 

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