Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

February 12, 2005

So you're saying I *am* more handsome than Denzel or Paul Walker.

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Will Smith first conquered Independence Day, and now he stakes his claim as the king of Valentine's Day.


With a solid $14.5 million Friday, Hitch nearly out-earned the rest of the top ten. The weekend is perfect for an above-average internal multiplier, as witnessed by the 3.96 50 First Dates pulled over this weekend last year. Hitch may not quite score that high with Valentine's Day proper not falling until Monday, but a multiplier in the realm of 3.5 sounds about right here. That will give Hitch a mammoth $50.7 million opening.

Pooh's Heffalump Movie

The latest adventure of the Thousand Acre Woods gang managed a mere $1.3 million Friday, and its weekend total should be under $5 million, thus killing any hopes I had for an Eeyore movie.

Notable Holdovers

The Boogeyman doesn't scare anybody anymore as it drops 62.6% from last Friday, and will fall around 55% for the weekend to about $8.5 million.

Last week's other horror release, The Wedding Date, also collapses, dropping 61.2% from a week ago. The only saving grace is that it might be an alternative for people who want to avoid the Hitch crowds. It should improve to a 50% drop, but that's not saying much.

Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Estimated Gross
1 Hitch 50.7
2 The Boogeyman 8.5
3 Are We There Yet? 7.9
4 Million Dollar Baby 7.1
5 The Wedding Date 5.5
6 Hide and Seek 4.8
7 Pooh's Heffalump Movie 4.7
8 The Aviator 4.6
9 Sideways 4.3
10 Meet the Fockers 3.1



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