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Friday Box Office Analysis

By Tim Briody

January 15, 2005

I want you to go over there and punch Bobby Knight in the face and see what happens.

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Three new releases and one expansion shake up the box office chart as we settle into the winter season.

Coach Carter

The based-on-a-true story basketball film with Samuel L. Jackson knocks Meet the Fockers out of the top slot with a very good estimated $8.2 million on Friday. Barring an excessively bad internal multiplier, we've got a second straight $20 million opener this month. We'll give Coach Carter a conservative 2.8 multiplier, giving the film a $22.9 million opening.

Elektra

The superhero spinoff is much more Catwoman than Daredevil with a first day's take of $4.5 million. The Jennifer Garner-starrer is liable to be frontloaded even if all the Alias fans didn't turn out opening night, so an internal multiplier in the vicinity of 2.7 seems about right, giving Elektra a disappointing $12.1 million for the weekend.

In Good Company

Making a successful leap from the arthouses to the multiplexes, the dramedy earned an estimated $4.5 million Friday in just 1,500 theaters (or in other words, a few grand more than Elektra on less than half the screens). With extremely positive word-of-mouth, In Good Company could be in for a decent run during the winter months. An opening weekend of $14 million is a very good start to making that happen.

Racing Stripes

The live action/animated kiddie pic earned a mere estimated $3.2 million Friday. It's rarely a good sign when a family film is banished to January. Look for an overall weekend total of around $9.5 million and a quick trip to DVD from there.

Notable Holdovers

Meet the Fockers drops out of the top spot after an impressive holiday run, but it's still down only 36.8% from last Friday, and looks to have an overall weekend drop in the 30% area as it steamrolls towards the $250 million mark.

After a solid opening weekend, White Noise drops 58.3% from a week ago. The fact that it stayed under 60% is a fairly impressive feat for a horror film in this day and age. A weekend decline in the low 50% range is in order here.


Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross
1 Coach Carter 22.9
2 Meet the Fockers 17.9
3 In Good Company 14.0
4 Elektra 12.1
5 White Noise 11.8
6 Racing Stripes 9.5
7 The Aviator 4.8
8 Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events 4.0
9 The Phantom of the Opera 3.4
10 Ocean's Twelve 3.1

     


 
 

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