New Year's Eve Box Office Analysis
By Tim Briody
January 1, 2005
Boy, this holiday box office season is pretty dull without any Lord of the Rings films, huh? Meet the Fockers is the only clear winner this year, with Fat Albert of all things taking second, mainly by virtue of not completely bombing like we all figured it would.
Meet the Fockers
The Ben Stiller/Robert DeNiro sequel earned an estimated $12 million Friday, an increase of 54.8% from Christmas Eve. As impressive as that sounds, keep in mind that New Year's Eve isn't as much of an anti-holiday as Christmas Eve is, but it's still pretty good. The Fockers' weekend total should be around $46.8 million, putting it just ahead of Meet the Parents' $166 million total.
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
The Jim Carrey flick added another $4.4 million to its total Friday and was defintely helped by the box office bonanza that is the week between Christmas and New Year's Day, which it needed after a dramatic drop-off after its opening weekend. The New Year's weekend total for the Unfortunate Events should be around $17 million, placing it a tad short of $100 million.
The Aviator
Martin Scorsese's latest attempt at Oscar glory did not fare as well as it would have liked to over the holiday week, but rebounded nicely on New Year's Eve with an estimated $4.2 million, a number very near to what it earned on Christmas Day, its first day of wide release. A $16 million weekend is a very good second weekend as it starts looking towards picking up some serious hardware in the form of Golden Globes and Academy Awards.
Fat Albert
In the "who'ulda thunk it?" category, we have Fat Albert. With an estimated $3 million New Year's Eve, the live-action adaptation of the animated series hasn't completely embarrassed itself since its Christmas Day release, although it has defied the logic of the holiday box office season by declining from the 25th to the 26th. Give it another $10 million over the weekend, and then a fond farewell from there.
Notable Holdovers
Three films hit signifigant milestones on the last day of 2004, as Ocean's Twelve crossed $100 million (yet may still go down as a disappointment) and both National Treasure and The Polar Express hit the $150 million mark. One more notable mark will be hit on the first day of 2005, as The Incredibles will reach $250 million.
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Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
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Projected
Rank |
Film |
Estimated Gross |
|
1
|
Meet The Fockers
|
46.8
|
|
2
|
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
|
17.0
|
|
3
|
The Aviator
|
16.0
|
|
4
|
Fat Albert
|
10.7
|
|
5
|
Ocean's Twelve
|
10.1
|
|
6
|
National Treasure
|
9.9
|
|
7
|
The Polar Express
|
8.3
|
|
8
|
Spanglish
|
6.4
|
|
9
|
The Phantom of the Opera
|
5.5
|
|
10
|
The Incredibles
|
5.4
|
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