Friday Box Office Analysis

By Kim Hollis

December 11, 2004

Who's up for a rousing game of Duck, Duck, Goose?

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The first week of December is always a dead zone. The second week, not so much. This is the weekend when studios start unleashing their major December productions. This year is no different, as Warner Bros. and New Line Cinema started things off with two big-time sequels.

Ocean's Twelve

Ocean's Twelve had a debut Friday of $14.7 million, $1.4 million more than Ocean's Eleven made on its first day. The first film in the heist series took in $38.1 million in its first three days, which meant that it had a 2.86 multiplier from Friday-to-Sunday. Give the sequel a 2.8, and it should finish the weekend with $41.1 million.

Blade: Trinity

The third film in the vampire hunter series based on a Marvel comic book performed dismally on Friday after pulling in $8.5 million on Wednesday and Thursday. Blade: Trinity made $5.5 million on Friday - an identical total to what it managed on Wednesday. The good news, if there is any to be found, is the fact that the movie will have already had its fanboy rush on Wednesday, thereby resulting in a stronger weekend multiplier than it might have had otherwise. Give it a 2.9, which would mean a Friday-to-Sunday total of $16 million. Sadly, that's $1 million less than the first Blade film made in three days and $16 million less than Blade 2.

Notable Holdovers

Closer's awards aspirations diminished some as it fell a rather emphatic 50% from last weekend. Most of the other holdovers were pretty much in line with expections, though there are two exceptions. The Polar Express showed that people are definitely feeling the Christmas spirit, as it dropped only 4% from last Friday. It has a terrific chance to show an increase from last weekend's total. On the other end of the spectrum is Oliver Stone's Alexander, which fell another 64%. This one's dead in the water, folks, and deservedly so. It's the worst film I've seen this year.

Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Estimated Gross
1 Ocean's Twelve 41.2
2 Blade: Trinity 16.0
3 National Treasure 10.2
4 The Polar Express 10.0
5 Christmas With the Kranks 7.3
6 The Incredibles 5.0
7 The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie 4.6
8 Closer 4.2
9 Alexander 1.9
10 Finding Neverland 1.7



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