Weekend Forecast for August 13-15, 2004
By Reagen Sulewski
August 12, 2004
With the traditional August slowdown in effect, we enter the realm of "lowered expectations". Occasionally a film from mid- to late August will find its way into the zeitgeist, but for the most part, the month is full of films that weren't quite big enough for the summer. We've got three such examples this weekend; films that might register as a blip for one weekend but will quickly disappear.
Opening Wednesday is The Princess Diaries 2: The Royal Engagement, a film that is the victim of its own success in recreating a genre, that of the teen girl wish-fulfillment movie. There have been, by my count, approximately 347 of these films starring one disposable teen starlet or another (yeah, you heard me, Duff) in the following three years since Diaries opened to a surprising $22 million and finished over the century mark. Launching Anne Hathaway into stardom, it told the story of an awkward 15-year-old who discovered she was the heir to the throne of the Kingdom of Genovia (I think it borders on Upper Kezykyrststan).
Combining equal parts Pretty Woman and My Fair Lady (though leaving out the hooker stuff), Princess Diaries was by all accounts pretty charming, though overwrought like every other Garry Marshall film. A sequel isn't too surprising, even if the whole genre is suffering from copycat syndrome. It even had its basic plot trumped this year in The Prince and Me, although the scenario is sort of the reverse from that film, as Hathaway's character finds herself in an arranged marriage to a British royal somewhere down the family tree, a guy who is apparently tired of waiting for that freak earthquake at Buckingham Palace. Romance and klutzy antics ensue.
Now I realize that everything that makes back its budget as quickly as the original film did will get a sequel, but doesn't it seem as though we have one of those occasions where the character journey is really complete and that the dramatic capabilities of a second film are pretty small? I mean, the hardships of being a royal being what they are, it doesn't seem like that much of a burden to end up in a marriage with, let's face it, a decent-looking guy with whom you can discuss how great it is that you don't actually have to work for a living and your greatest fear is that the paparazzi will figure out where the hell your country is and... but I digress. As with several other films this summer, the early preview dates are going to drive down the weekend figure, though it really doesn't make any difference in the long run. Advertising has been pretty light, but perhaps Disney is just feeling gun-shy this year. It's probably not needed given the built-in audience for the sequel, who let's face it, will clearly see anything. Look for around $14 million in the first two preview days, with about $27 million following for the weekend.
Few films can claim to have been in development hell for quite as long as Alien vs. Predator. Inspired by a brief glimpse of an alien skull in the Predator's ship in Predator 2 (amazing, considering no one saw that), the cross-over went through every possible iteration of media save a Saturday morning cartoon prior to finally getting all the legal details worked out for this movie version. The plot of this one finds a team of scientists in Antarctica (who have conveniently brought their automatic machine guns for penguin hunting) that stumble into a secret war between the Aliens and the Predators (who, technically speaking, are also aliens) that looks a little something like the video game Starcraft.
Directed by Paul W.S. Anderson, the poor man's James Cameron, Alien vs. Predator appears to be shooting more for the Predator side of the aisle than the Alien, even as it tackles one of the great debates of our time, like Smurfs vs. Snorks, Great Taste vs. Less Filling and John McClane vs. Rambo (all coming soon to a theater near you). With only Lance Henriksen (a nice touch, that) and possibly Sanaa Lathan as recognizable actors in this, it's going to be riding entirely on franchise recognition to get anywhere. As Freddy vs. Jason showed by opening to $36 million last year, that's entirely possible, to a point. That film was heavily, heavily promoted and in clever ways, playing off the personalities of the two antagonists. The Aliens and Predators, on the other hand, are pretty faceless and there isn't as much of a hook to the public. Curiosity will certainly induce a pretty good first weekend, but the fact that no press screenings are being granted is a terrible sign. I expect a $26 million opening weekend and then a really steep drop off.
Speaking of things with short shelf life, Yu-Gi-Oh!: The Movie (beware any film that includes an exclamation point in the title; I'll decide whether I'm excited or not, thank you very much), the latest iteration of the card battle/cartoon/viral marketing gimmick that is so inexplicably popular with the last ten years or so of kids opens to see if anyone cares. Apparently unwatchable even by the standards of these things, the movie serves as the official tipping point of the fad. After the first Pokémon movie opened to $31 million, every cartoon show decided they had to get in on the bucks, and quick. That's a justified position, considering that the fourth and fifth Pokémon movies (bet you didn't even know they went that far) both grossed under $2 million. Gotta catch 'em all (before they discover girls)! Since then, these things have settled into a far saner box office range. I don't see this one breaking any new ground and it should slip in at about $6 million for three days.
Apparently, Tom Cruise: Hitman is about as easy a sell as Tom Hanks: Hitman, as Collateral opened to nearly the same debut weekend figure as Road to Perdition. Okay, so it's a bit of a spurious claim but it's an interesting coincidence. $24.7 million is a bit of a blow to the old movie star ego, but for an unconventional thriller shot on DV with a relatively untested co-lead, it's not that bad. I sincerely hope this one takes off in the next few weeks with the weaker slate, as I truly believe it's Oscar worthy in multiple categories. I don't hold my hopes too high, though, and I look for about $15 million in weekend number two.
Last weekend officially marked the point at which we threw up our hands at M. Night Shyamalan and said, "Oh, come on, just tell a straight story already!" as The Village dropped an almost unheard of 67.6% from its opening weekend, the box office equivalent of storming Frankenstein's castle. Unbreakable was overlooked, but this one will not be. His next film has to be an unqualified success or the latter-day Spielberg dreams may be over.
The Bourne Supremacy continues its run towards becoming the latest star action franchise, marching towards a $175 million domestic total after falling "only" 40%, a number that almost makes you E.T. if you're a sequel these days. The Manchurian Candidate is an adept little thriller but either we're politicked out or audiences found the film a little hard to believe as it fell a disturbing 47%. Watch for the mind control "see it again" ads coming to your TV set soon.
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Forecast: Weekend of August 13-15, 2004
|
Rank |
Film |
Number of
Sites |
Changes in Sites
from Last |
Estimated
Gross ($) |
|
1
|
The Princess Diaries 2
|
3,472
|
New
|
27.4
|
|
2
|
Alien vs. Predator
|
3,395
|
New
|
26.6
|
|
3
|
Collateral
|
3,205
|
+17
|
15.6
|
|
4
|
The Bourne Supremacy
|
2.970
|
-334
|
8.8
|
|
5
|
The Village
|
3,142
|
-591
|
7.4
|
|
6
|
The Manchurian Candidate
|
2,612
|
-255
|
5.9
|
|
7
|
Yu-Gi-Oh! The Movie
|
2,411
|
New
|
5.7
|
|
8
|
I, Robot
|
2,178
|
-628
|
3.7
|
|
9
|
Little Black Book
|
2,445
|
No change
|
3.4
|
|
10
|
Spider-Man 2
|
1,907
|
-657
|
3.0
|
|
|
|
|
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