Friday Numbers Analysis
By Tim Briody
July 24, 2004
Raise your hand if you thought Matt Damon would be the bigger action star of the Affleck/Damon combo. I thought so.
The Bourne Supremacy
With an incredible $19.1 million Friday, The Bourne Supremacy more than doubles the opening night number for 2002's The Bourne Identity. Credit the word-of-mouth the film got and the solid business it did on DVD and video. The Bourne Identity had a 3.09 multiplier off an $8.8 million Friday figure. We can't expect that here as there's a considerably higher Friday rush factor, but even a 2.8 internal multiplier gives The Bourne Supremacy $53.4 million for the weekend.
Catwoman
The comic book adaptation opened to $6.2 million Friday. Figure most of that total was teenagers out to stare at Halle Berry or those wanting to view a train wreck. We'll be on the generous side and give it an internal multiplier in the realm of 2.8, giving Catwoman $17.3 million for the weekend.
Notable Holdovers
I, Robot tumbles like a typical summer popcorn movie, plunging 61.5% from last Friday. Cannibalized by The Bourne Supremacy or perhaps slightly too cerebral for a summer movie? Either way, I, Robot will face a 55% decline for the weekend.
A Cinderella Story just narrowly avoids the 50% decline from last Friday, but that's not a good sign for its future. It will improve to around a 40% decline from last weekend, though that's not how you hold on to your screens.
|
Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
|
Projected
Rank |
Film |
Estimated Gross ($M) |
|
1
|
The Bourne Supremacy
|
53.4
|
|
2
|
I, Robot
|
23.3
|
|
3
|
Catwoman
|
17.3
|
|
4
|
Spider-Man 2
|
15.1
|
|
5
|
A Cinderella Story
|
8.1
|
|
6
|
Anchorman
|
7.3
|
|
7
|
The Notebook
|
4.8
|
|
8
|
Fahrenheit 9/11
|
4.6
|
|
9
|
King Arthur
|
3.2
|
|
10
|
Shrek 2
|
2.4
|
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