Friday Numbers Analysis

By Tim Briody

July 3, 2004

C'mon, I've been in waaay more Academy Award nominated films than Jake Gyllenhaal.

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Spider-Man 2

Spider-Man 2 raked in another $30.7 million on Friday, bringing it to $95 million in a mere three days. The Friday figure represents a 29% increase from Thursday, though still a good $10 million behind the mammoth Wednesday number.

The original Spider-Man earned $39.4 million on Friday and was able to improve on that number by over 10% on Saturday. With the front-loaded Wednesday out of the way, a similar uptick should be in the works here. We'll go with a weekend multiplier in the realm of 3.1, for a $95.7 million weekend and a mere $159.9 million over the five-day opening. Monday, which is the day the national holiday is observed for days off by government and many other workers, will just be extra gravy.

Fahrenheit 9/11

Forget that it's a documentary, we have to treat Fahrenheit 9/11 like a usual summer blockbuster. In the case of Michael Moore's film, despite the addition of almost 1,000 screens, a 38.6% decline from last Friday is damn good, especially in the face of Spider-Man 2. Also given that it had a somewhat frontloaded weekend, things look even better in the long run. Figure a weekend decline of under 30%.

Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Estimated Gross
1 Spider-Man 2 95.7
2 Fahrenheit 9/11 17.2
3 White Chicks 9.8
4 Dodgeball 9.2
5 The Notebook 8.8
6 The Terminal 8.6
7 Shrek 2 6.8
8 Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban 6.6
9 Garfield 3.7
10 Two Brothers 3.1



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