Friday Numbers Analysis
By Tim Briody
March 27, 2004
Freddy Prinze, Jr.-hating Kevin Smith fans have additional reasons to be upset this weekend.
Scooby-Doo 2: Monsters Unleashed
With an estimated Friday gross of $8.5 million, the kiddie sequel will not even approach the $54 million earned by the original in 2002. But we all knew that. Since we're out of the summer, we'll be on the generous side and give Scooby-Doo 2 a kid-friendly 3.6 multiplier, which means a $30.6 million weekend. That's not hideous or anything, but place those bets on the under side of the $100 million mark.
The Ladykillers
Earning an estimated $4.1 million Friday, The Ladykillers eerily mirrors the first day earnings of last year's Intolerable Cruelty. That film had a 3.05 multiplier, but the presence of one Tom Hanks will bump that up to around a 3.2 or so, giving The Ladykillers $14.1 million for the weekend, the Coen Brothers their best debut yet and Tom Hanks his lowest opening weekend take since 1996.
Jersey Girl
Is there Bennifer backlash? Hard to say, as Jersey Girl's first day earnings are pretty much in line with his two widest releases. An estimated $3 million Friday for the latest film by Kevin Smith means it might not best the $11 million Jay and Silent Bob Strike Back took in in 2001. But an $8.7 million weekend and solid word-of-mouth gives it a very good chance being his highest grossing film ever.
Never Die Alone
The ironically titled Never Die Alone dies alone outside the top ten with an estimated $1 million Friday. We're hoping for a $3 million weekend and the severe beating of David Arquette at the hands of DMX.
Notable Holdovers
Dawn of the Dead behaves like a typical horror movie, collapsing 67% from last Friday. It'll be off around 60% from last weekend, and it can forget about the $100 million mark after its decent start last weekend.
Taking Lives holds a bit better than expected, down 48% from last Friday, and a weekend decline of 45% is in store.
The terrific Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind drops 39% from last week, and hopes to only fall about 30% from last weekend.
|
Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
|
Projected
Rank |
Film |
Estimated Gross (M$) |
|
1
|
Scooby-Doo 2: Monsters Unleashed
|
30.6
|
|
2
|
The Ladykillers
|
14.1
|
|
3
|
The Passion of the Christ
|
12.5
|
|
4
|
Dawn of the Dead
|
10.7
|
|
5
|
Jersey Girl
|
8.7
|
|
6
|
Starsky & Hutch
|
6.4
|
|
7
|
Taking Lives
|
6.3
|
|
8
|
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
|
5.7
|
|
9
|
Hidalgo
|
5.4
|
|
10
|
Secret Window
|
5.1
|
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