Friday Box Office Analysis

By Kim Hollis

March 7, 2020

Good dragon!

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With people taking all measure of precaution as Coronavirus spreads, movie exhibitors may be finding themselves in a tough situation in the coming weeks and possibly months.

Over the past couple of days, MGM/United Artists/Universal has pushed back the upcoming James Bond thriller No Time to Die, which some are speculating could cost the studio $30 million or more. On the flip side, of course, people all over the world are less and less likely to gather in public places, with movie theaters being a prime example of an enclosed space where someone's germs can transmit to others. With uncertainty about how asymptomatic people might be spreading the virus, many people are taking precautions.

From school closings to cancellations of major events like Austin, Texas's South By Southwest festival to businesses advising employees to work from home, we're seeing impacts across the US, including shortages on hand sanitizer and... toilet paper.

So... it's tough to be in the movie-making business right now, is what I'm saying. Well, it is if you're not sending your films direct-to-Netflix or Disney+ or other streaming platforms, anyway.

Pixar isn't always a guaranteed home run, but they're usually quite consistent. Onward, their latest release, is a delightful film with an A- Cinemascore and a solid 86 percent fresh rating at Rotten Tomatoes. Its primary characters are voiced by two of the stars of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, Chris Pratt and Tom Holland. We've had a void on family films for a while, and it's spring break in a lot of places across North America.




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Even so, Onward opened with just $12.1 million yesterday.

That's probably about worst-case scenario for Disney and brand-new CEO Bob Chapek, who is having a pretty terrible week despite his promotion. I do wonder if Onward doesn't have enough appeal for young girls, as this is a distinctly male-focused story about two brothers (though it has awesome female characters in supporting roles). It's also more for the Dungeons & Dragons crowd than your average audience, perhaps.

Whatever the issue, and I think there were many problems that combined for this lower showing, I think we can expect Onward to earn around $38 million for the weekend. Other studios might go ahead and estimate high at $40 million, but Disney doesn't usually do that. Under any circumstance, I highly recommend the film if you don't mind risking a virus or two out there in the world.

Also new this weekend is the Ben Affleck inspirational film The Way Back (NOT a sequel or prequel to The Way, Way Back), which debuted with just $2.6 million. It was never going to be particularly big anyway, and the backlash against Affleck might be real. This one's going to earn about $7.5 million for the weekend.

Emma expanded wider this weekend (1,565 theaters) and earned $1.7 million. With maybe $5 million for the weekend, it'll be a nice small-scale earner for Focus Features.


     


 
 

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