New at BOP: Review: Matrix Resurrections Movie Review: Moonfall Movie Reviews: Scream The #1 Movie in America November Forecast The Many Saints of Newark October Forecast New Trivia Question All site updates Share & Save   Tweet Print this column

By now the fortunes fall. By now the tale is told. A few stand tall. A few grow old. From many, there can be only one. 2019 draws to a close, the final month has ended, and a decade of monumental change passes us by. It always amazes me to think of the passage of time in units of movies. For example, the amount of time that passed between Gone with the Wind and Bridge on the River Kwai is the same amount of time that has passed from The Lord of the Rings until now. The amount of time between Alien and The Matrix is how long has passed since The Matrix. The amount of time between the first Star Wars and now is the same amount of time between Star Wars and It Happened One Night. Or, another way, the time between the end of World War II and the end of the Vietnam War is the same as time from Dances with Wolves until now. Eras pass, sometimes so quickly. The 2010’s brought video streaming to the masses, way beyond what sites like YouTube were capable of back then with 360p resolution. Now glorious 4K HDR is best seen on your home television set, often from that same YouTube. Dolby Atmos had barely debuted in theaters, and now is similarly available in your living room from a sound bar or a laptop. A phone was just showing it’s smarts, and now they run our lives. Tesla was a company barely anyone had heard of. Obamacare was about to pass. The Apprentice Season 9 was about to begin.

In 2010, Disney was wrapping up its purchase of Marvel, then having only one huge hit under its belt, Ironman. Lucasfilm was barely within Disney’s sights, and yet the groundwork was laid for how the theatrical market would evolve. David Fincher was setting about creating a show about political fortunes in a cuttthroat Washington environment. In some ways, this last development would be the spark of how entertainment would spread forever more. The decade ends with Disney on top by a massive margin, sitting pretty on it’s own IP as well as Star Wars and Marvel. They also just launched a streaming network that is instantly nearly as big as Netflix, with even loftier ambitions. Netflix is earning the next series of Oscar nominations for a film most people watched on their smart TVs. 20th Century Fox is no more, and other studios’ fortunes do not look promising. Entertainment changed a lot in ten years, but right now storytelling is more primed with vigor and sweat than ever. It’s just as likely, though, that the best thing you watch is streaming over your internet connection as opposed to streaming over your head in a movie theater. Movie theaters! How passé!

1) Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker

Opening Weekend: $177.4 M
Monthly Box Office: $390.7 M

December was no exception, and caps off a year that was no exception. Disney is on top, Star Wars is on top, and the mouse nearly had spot number two as well. Not to mention The Mandalorian was probably more discussed than any pop culture product during the month, thanks to one munchkin Yoda. And yet, all is not perfect in a galaxy far, far away. The opening day was under $100 million, which the previous two entries had eclipsed. The opening weekend was well under $200 million, which the previous two entries had eclipsed. The opening weekend multiplier was under 2.0, which the previous two entries had eclipsed. Sensing a trend? No matter how much money Episode IX will earn, the writing was on the wall day one. Even earlier, perhaps, since reviews only came out a day before the first showings and the Rotten Tomatoes score landed at a deadly 53%. By New Year’s Day Skywalker was earning half of what The Force Awakens was raking in, and the end result is going to look similar.

When the Force Awakens opened it shattered opening weekend records, domestic gross records, and gave the Star Wars Universe a much needed jolt of energy. Rise of Skywalker certainly is hitting the upper echelons of box office statistics, and yet this year Avengers: Endgame and The Lion King both will have opening weekends and domestic grosses that are larger. Not that Disney minds too much, given that they own seven of the top ten domestic earners for 2019 (including the top six, and another one is Spider-Man which is kind of co-owned by them anyway). As the fortunes of the movie theater wane, so do those of streaming wax, and as Rise of Skywalker may not be the juggernaut we wanted, Disney+ and The Mandalorian show Star Wars will continue, forever. Give Skywalker a finale to the tune of $530 domestic and well over a billion worldwide. Ten years ago five movies had earned over a billion dollars worldwide (not including re-releases after 2010). This past year alone Disney will have seven films that eclipsed that mark.

2) Jumanji: The Next Level

Opening Weekend: $59.3 M
Monthly Box Office: $192.1 M

Sony is just happy to be here, everyone. The sequel to the surprise monster hit from 2017, The Next Level is not quite as large, acting more as filler for those who enjoyed the first one. The first film actually had a small opening that blossomed huge over the holidays, whereas this sequel had a much larger opening weekend, but is petering out in more typical blockbuster fashion. The holidays still gave it a big boost, but the numbers will definitely be a tad lower than two years ago. That means little with a domestic gross approaching $300 million and a worldwide total that could hit three times that. Sony has actually had a decent year, with Spider-Man, Jumanji, and acquiring the distribution rights to Quentin Tarantino’s films starting with Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Their mid tier films did poorly, however, as Men in Black and Zombieland earned about $150 million combined, so anything Jumanji adds to the coffers is good. With weekend drops bouncing all over the place, from +33% to -55%, give this one a few more lucrative weekends in 2020, for a total right around $300 million domestic and $800 million worldwide.

3) Frozen II

Monthly Box Office: $160.8 M
Running Total: $430.1 M

Disney was not content to have the top spot. Oh no, they also have the top holdover, with a hefty sum all on its own. After winning last month, Frozen II had its sights on the holidays and kept things humming along nicely. So nice, that it is now the largest animated film of all time with worldwide grosses eclipsing the original Frozen, accruing over $1.3 billion and counting. Top ten of all time, here she comes! The domestic gross is also higher than the original’s paltry $400 million, although in North America the continued adventures of Elsa and Anna will have to settle for top fifteen of all time. After a ridiculously small weekend drop during Frozen II’s second weekend, the film leveled out and bounced back a bit during Christmas. Now that the new year has come, the drops are accelerating again and show that Frozen II only has a little steam left. It should finish close to $475 million domestic, with three times that worldwide.

4) Knives Out

Monthly Box Office: $80.1 M
Running Total: $115.7 M

Rian Johnson made a little movie a few years back called The Last Jedi. This year he decided to go back to making movies that are not blockbusters, and somehow managed to have a box office story better than Star Wars. Knives Out had a very good debut back in November, and has had wonderful holds all the way through the end of 2019 and into 2020. Never having the top spot on any weekend, mostly thanks to Frozen II, Knives Out has consistently been having the smallest drops in the top ten weekend after weekend. This has given it a 5.0 multiplier, a lone Oscar nomination, and if it can top 2018 Halloween’s $159 million it will be Jamie Lee Curtis’ biggest film of all time. I say it tops that mark the final day of January.

5) Little Women

Opening Weekend: $16.8 M
Monthly Box Office: $37.6 M

Here we come at last to some Oscar hopefuls, and indeed with multiple nominations Little Women stands to be an Oscar winner on February 10th. Greta Gerwig’s followup to her directorial debut brings along her star Saoirse Ronan, and their pairing seems to be very successful. Ladybird earned $48 million two years ago, scoring five major Oscar nominations. Little Women is following that to a T, with the snub of a Best Director nomination, and should earn close to $100 million by the end of its run. At least Gerwig can say the two films she has directed were both nominated for Best Picture, and her box office fortunes are rising.

6) Spies in Disguise

Opening Weekend: $13.4 M
Monthly Box Office: $29.3 M

Animated films often vie for the dollars at the end of the year, but new opener Spies in Disguise has to settle for the scraps after Frozen II scorched, er, froze the earth. With a small opening weekend for the star power of Will Smith (remember Gemini Man, anyone?), the holidays have at least boosted its fortunes so that $65 million should be its domestic gross. The problem is this is a fairly large production from Blue Sky Studios and Disney-née-Fox with a $100 million budget. Suffice it to say, this one will not be in the black, and the fortunes of Will Smith continue to dwindle. Maybe he can get with Greta Gerwig next time. Will and Saoirse is a match made in heaven.

7) Ford v Ferrari

Monthly Box Office: $29 M
Running Total: $107.2 M

Ford somehow earned a nomination for Best Picture without any other major award nominations except Best Editing. Such are the fortunes of this well received film earning a decent amount of money, that will ultimately walk away with nothing from the Dolby Theater. Squeezing out a final few million before the ball dropped, Ford has run out of gas with just over $110 million in its sights and a bit under double that worldwide. This actually shocks me a bit, as a film having a plot revolve around Le Mans combined with decent star power should do much better worldwide. At least it will get a few nice montages at the Oscars.

8) Queen & Slim

Monthly Box Office: $27.7 M
Running Total: $40.7 M

Queen is our fourth holdover, showing December is just as big a month for November movies as it is for new releases. After opening over Thanksgiving with slightly low numbers, Queen bounced back a bit with holds generally staying in the fortieth percentile. Given that it never was showing in more than 1,700 theaters, that it will earn about $45 million dollars is great. For reference, Queen had theater averages comparable to Knives Out for the first four weekends, but Knives Out was playing in twice as many theaters which is why it has earned so much more. With a small budget, however, this film will do well enough to earn its keep and be a solid debut for director Melina Matsoukas (the third woman director on this list, with one more in spot number 10).

9) Uncut Gems

Opening Weekend: $9.6 M (wide)
Monthly Box Office: $25.3 M

OK, class, show of hands, who saw Adam Sandler appearing in one of the most acclaimed movies of the year? Anyone...oh, Jim Carrey, you saw it coming? That snub for Eternal Sunshine still hurts? Well, Adam wasn’t even nominated. Feel better? Yes, its true, Adam Sandler comes back to straight drama (he dabbles in it from time to time), and gives A24 their largest film should it beat Ladybird’s $48 million (give it a few more days). A huge win for a film that probably had a minuscule budget, comes from a co-directorial debut, and was in the process of being made for a decade.

10) A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Monthly Box Office: $24.8 M
Running Total: $56.7 M

I hate to say it, but the bounty just is not there for Mr. Rogers in this one. Whereas Mr. Hanks portrayed Mr. Disney and that film had box office and acclaim, this one has more muted success. A Beautiful Day will earn about half of what Saving Mr. Banks earned, and earn exactly the same as that film’s lone Oscar nomination, swapping Best Supporting Actor for Best Film Score. With a modest $25 million budget and earnings approaching $60 million, Mr. Rogers is having somewhat a bright day in the end.

Just missing out on the top ten is the abomination that is Cats with $20 million, Bombshell dropping like a hot potato with $18.1 million, Richard Jewel with $17.8 million, Black Christmas earning about as much as the 1974 original with $9.9 million and Dark Waters treading water at $9.8 million. In December all films earned about $1.145 billion at the domestic box office, which is the fourth highest total for the month and about average for the past five years. The top two Decembers were the ones with Episodes VII and VIII of Star Wars, so obviously that was one big reason the monthly total was a bit lower. That gives 2019 about $11.3 billion in earnings, which is the third highest total ever, and again, about average for the past five years. Disney dominates like the never have before, and nothing looks to slow that trend in 2020. January has expanding Oscar hopefuls and a few duds tossed at the wolves, so we shall see how they fare. Happy New Year everyone!