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The early December doldrums are over and the holiday season can now officially begin with the release of Jumanji: The Next Level. It’s the follow-up to 2017’s surprise phenomenon, which itself is a semi-connected reboot of the 1995 hit starring Robin Williams. There’s a lot of ways to compare such a unique film. Do we follow the rules of a family-friendly sequel? The rules of a follow-up to a 90’s brand reborn? The rules of video games? There’s a lot of ways The Next Level could go and none of them would be all that surprising.

I could go into where the story might be headed by I’m pretty sure it’s all in the title. It’s the next level of a video game. The action will be bigger because levels always get harder, and trailer suggest a glitch in the system could create some fun surprises. But really, how much world-building can go on here? It’s just a video game and The Matrix has already been done, so I’m pretty sure the whole point of this sequel is just to have a blast at the movies and not think too much. I’m ok with that because a little excitement is all I need right now and you know I loooooove talking about potential box office returns. So turn on your system and pick your character because we’re about the plug into 5 Ways to Prep for Jumanji: The Next Level!

1) THE PREDECESSOR THAT ALL COMPS WILL BE WEIGHED AGAINST = Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (2017)

Kids play a video game, get sucked into it and must act as the avatars fighting their way through levels to beat the final challenge before returning safely to the real world. That’s the jist of it. The 1995 version featured a board game that challenges were spit out of so at least the update twisted the old rules in new ways. The original Jumanji earned $100 million, which is $209 million after inflation. The reboot earned $405 million, which is mind blowing. Not many reboots earn twice the original after inflation so nobody saw this result coming, especially after it’s modest $36 million debut. Great action, family-friendly fun and infectious chemistry between the actors made this a runaway hit. Another blockbuster is in order for the franchise but most don’t expect the same lightning to strike twice. That’s ok though as history suggests that’s almost impossible. I guess it all depends on exactly how you categorize these new Jumanji movies to begin with.

2) SEQUEL TO A MOVIE ABOUT CHARACTERS IN A VIDEO GAME WORLD = Ralph Breaks the Internet (2018)

In Wreck-It Ralph, there is the human world and the world inside arcade games. In Jumanji, there’s the real world and then the world inside the game console. Ralph is about the arcade characters having their own consciousness and living life after the arcade closes. Jumanji has humans getting sucked into a game and taking control of the game characters. While not an exact match, it’s pretty close and Ralph’s sequel earnings are the best case scenario for Jumanji’s Next Level. Wreck-It Ralph earned $189 million and Ralph Breaks the Internet made $201 million. That 6.3% increase would give The Next Level $430 million. That would be amazing and would guarantee a third entry in the rebooted series. Frozen 2 is about to repeat the $400+ million earnings of its predecessor and Ralph 2 also topped the first by a similar small margin. Is that what blockbuster family-fare sequels can expect during the holidays? Jumanji sure hopes so but almost every analyst is expecting a much different result.

3) SEQUEL TO A MOVIE BASED OFF OF AN ACTUAL GAME = Mortal Kombat: Annihilation (1997) & Tomb Raider: The Cradle of Life (2003)

Wreck-It Ralph was based off an original story so maybe it’s similarities to Jumanji, which is based off a children’s book, won’t follow the same rules. But not only was Jumanji a book that was adapted into a 1995 film that was rebooted in 2017, it’s also a board game and a video game. I had the board game as a kid and I’m pretty sure a new video game was recently released to tie into the reboots updated gaming concept. Well video games are hard to come by and only a tiny fraction of them are successful enough to have sequels. Oddly enough the two examples that come to mind have identical drop offs with their second film, which should scare Jumanji because it’s not great news.

The Mortal Kombat series went from $70 million to $36 million. Tomb Raider (the Angelina Jolie version) went from $131 million to $65 million. Basically, films about actual games drop 50% the second time around. That means Jumanji’s Next Level earns about $202 million. This is still FANTASTIC by video game movie standards and should still warrant another sequel, but producers may have been too spoiled by that other $400 million they made to go for a complete trilogy. For the record, those other video game franchises took loooooooong breaks before rebooting after their 50% hit. Can Jumanji survive the hardest level of all, wearing out the welcome novelty of a game adaptation?

4) SEQUEL TO A RECENT REBOOT OF A 90’S FRANCHISE = Star Wars: The Last Jedi (2017) & Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (2018) & IT: Chapter 2 (2019)

There are some analysts that seriously think a 50% drop off is in order here, ala most video game sequels. It’s going to be hard to tell because anything over a $36 million debut could still have the sequel earning over $400 million if it follows in its predecessors footsteps, which Wreck-It Ralph says is possible. It would take truly terrible reviews for the sequel to crater 50%, but given today’s box office atmosphere a big drop is in order given its specific kind of status as a sequel. Maybe it’s not inhabitable gaming worlds or being based off of an actual game that matters to Jumanji. Maybe it’s that franchise had success in the 1990’s and is now being rebooted in the 2010’s, and that films that bank on nostalgia tend to follow similar drop offs. Don’t believe me? Here’s a few examples!

Star Wars had its second trilogy start in the late 90’s, it took a break, came back in 2015 with a third trilogy that kicked off with $937 million and was followed up in 2017 with a sequel that earned $620 million (-34%). Jurassic Park had a blockbuster trilogy start in the 90’s, it took a break, came back in 2015 with a new trilogy that kicked off with $652 million and was followed up in 2018 with a sequel that earned $418 million (-36%). IT was a two-part TV miniseries in the early 90’s, took a break, rebooted in 2017 with $327 million and was followed up in 2019 with a sequel that earned $212 million (-35%). All were based off of older movies/book source material, all were cultural touchstones of the 90’s, all became blockbuster phenomenons in the 2010’s, and all had sequels drop 34-36%. That gives Jumanji: The Next Level $263 million, which (in my opinion) is a more realistic result than $200 million. Anything around $300 million, though, would really be a reason to celebrate. That would make it king of the 90’s reboot sequel drop-offs!

5) WAIT A SECOND, THERE WAS ALREADY A JUMANJI SEQUEL? = Zathura (2005)

Not so much a direct sequel as it is a spiritual one, Zathura took the same concept of Jumanji but changed up the genre. There’s still a board game and things can still go in and out of it, but this time the game isn’t jungle themed, it’s space themed! Board games don’t have levels, they just have different board games, so Zathura is essentially still Jumanji’s next level. Without original star Robin Williams and with a pretty inexperienced director at the helm, it’s not surprising Jumanji’s $100 million dropped down to $28 million for Zathura (-72%), which is pretty bad considering how decent the movie is. It’s not bad. It’s actually pretty good, if you can let your inner child out to play for a bit. And while a $28 million film could ultimately ruin a lot of careers, it’s a good thing Hollywood at times can offer second chances.

The director of Zathura? Jon Favreau. Before Zathura, he only had a handful of directing credits and one happened to be the holiday classic Elf. But Hollywood is all about the novelty, and once Zathura crashed it was safe to assume Favreau might not direct again for a while. Then he did Iron Man. Then Iron Man 2. Then Jungle Book, then Lion King and now he’s busy blowing our Baby Yoda minds with Mandalorian on Disney+. And it’s in that vein that hopefully Jumanji gets another life in the event it also falls 72%, which would mean $113 million. No matter what the outcome, as long as there is profit then we should get another sequel.

I’d hate for the 50% drop to $200 million to be enough for producers to stop the franchise. It’s fun, it’s fresh and it has unlimited potential with the countless levels and updates a video game is capable of. Welcome to the Jungle only cost $90 million to make and earned over ten times that amount worldwide. If the sequel ballooned to $150 million in costs, then we could still see profit if the worldwide total falls 50% to just under $500 million, which would still be enough to justify a sequel given the demand for content for the streaming wars to come. The trailers look great and I’m super pumped for another round in the world of Jumanji. New players jumping into the old characters we love will keep the story exciting and unexpected, and another shot at one more sequel could really take the franchise to a whole new level.