Friday Box Office Analysis

By Kim Hollis

July 6, 2019

Nice to meet you, Mr. Tobey Maguire.

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Marvel. Disney. Nothing else matters in the world of movies, and we all know it at this point. As I review the release schedule for the remainder of 2019, I think it's time for theater companies to despair. All hope is lost. At least they have Fathom Events and birthday parties, I guess.

On the plus side, July will be good to them. Spider-Man: Far from Home (not technically Disney, but certainly Marvel) actually debuted on Tuesday to get a bit of a jump start on the Thursday Independence Day holiday. By the time it reached the weekend, the latest entry in the Spider-Man series (and the apparent final entry in the current phase of Marvel storytelling) had earned $91.5 million. The biggest of those three days was the Tuesday, which set a record for openers on that day of the week - although it's not a super high bar. Yesterday, the "Sony" film added another $32.5 million, which means that the cross-quadrant product is already sitting with $124 million before Saturday/Sunday even arrive. I think we can look for another $90 million or so for the weekend, which means that it will have earned $180 million in five days. Oh, and it has also already made $219 million overseas, so it's officially a massive hit across the board.

Also opening for the holiday, but on Wednesday instead of Tuesday, was Midsommar, the horror follow up to last year's Hereditary. I'd say people fall into two categories - the few who thought Hereditary was great, and then everyone else. I'm pretty solidly in the latter category, as they lost me with one horrific scene that I struggled to get past. Anyway, Midsommar earned $2.2 million yesterday and has $6.6 million since its Wednesday debut. Like Hereditary, critics liked it (it rates 83 percent fresh at Rotten Tomatoes). Also like Hereditary, general audiences hated it (though slightly less - Midsommar has a C+ Cinemascore versus Hereditary's B+). I don't see it hanging around long, but I do suspect it will have a dedicated group of supporters who convince unsuspecting friends to watch.


With regard to last weekend's new releases, Yesterday actually has the best Friday of the two. Down 44 percent from the previous Friday, it earned $3.4 million. It should come in right around $11 million. As for Annabelle Comes Home, audiences just don't care. It declined 51 percent from an already pretty crappy Friday last week, earning just $3.2 million. $10 million seems likely for Friday-to-Sunday.

Toy Story 4 has had solid weekdays and fell only 30 percent from last Friday, giving it $11.9 million yesterday. It should have a weekend total right at $45 million, allowing it to cross the $300 million mark with relative ease. It's got another weekend before The Lion King, though I do wonder if Disney shouldn't have separated them a bit more from each other.



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