Friday Box Office Analysis

By Kim Hollis

June 29, 2019

Psst... the box office died in 2019.

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We sang dirges in the dark the day the box office died.

We've been chronicling the decline of box office in 2019, as we've seen disappointment after disappointment in theaters. Sure, there have been a very few bright spots (Us, John Wick, Detective Pikachu, and Disney films excluding Dumbo), but overall, we're seeing a very real trend toward people finding other ways to spend their money and free time. If there's not a compelling reason to see a movie in theaters, people are perfectly fine with waiting until movies are released on home video.

We've got the same old story this weekend, with a sequel performing nowhere near its predecessors. Annabelle Comes Home is the latest movie to emerge from the Conjuring franchise, and at this point I think it's fair to say that the producers and studio have overexposed the story. Last year's The Nun was absolutely terrible and they also had the earlier 2019 release The Curse of La Llarona attached to the series, albeit tenuously. Annabelle Comes Home actually debuted on Wednesday, earning $7.2 million on that first day. Yesterday's total was $6.6 million, giving it $17.4 million in its first three days. By the end of the weekend, we should be looking at about $27 million for five days. Considering that the first two Annabelle movies opened to more than $35 million in just three days, this is pretty rotten. Look for it to fall off pretty quickly, too, as horror aficionados will have Midsommar next weekend, from the creators of Hereditary.


Yesterday, the weekend's other wide release, earned $6.1 million. Directed by the great Danny Boyle and written by the also great Richard Curtis, the movie's cute premise features a young man making hits out of Beatles songs when he realizes that he is the only one who remembers them somehow. I'd predict about $16 million for the weekend, which is probably fine as I expect this film to make the bulk of its profit overseas. I'm a big Boyle fangirl (I count Millions, Slumdog Millionaire, and 28 Days Later amongst my favorites), and an even bigger Richard Curtis fangirl (Blackadder is one of my favorite television series ever, and several of his other film screenplays (Four Weddings and a Funeral, Notting Hill, Love Actually, and About Time are all nearly perfect). Anyway, this is acceptable, which seems to match its Rotten Tomatoes rating (60 percent) and Cinemascore (A-).

With a gaping hole in desirable films, people continued to make Toy Story 4 the top choice. It earned $17 million yesterday, down 64 percent from last Friday's total (which was fairly inflated due to a rush on Thursday previews). I think we can look for another $60 million this weekend, which should push the film up over $250 million. For anyone thinking this is a disappointment, Toy Story 4 was the biggest worldwide animated opener ever, and it should continue to bring in dollars from those international venues as well. Plus, I just bought three Toy Story 4 related items today, so merchandising is going strong. (I like Ducky and Bunny.)

The good news in the next few days is that Spider-Man: Far From Home is arriving in a few days, and audiences should be pretty excited for this one after Avengers: Endgame. Also, Tom Holland is delightful.



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